NEAR Protocol (NEAR) is attempting to stabilize above $3.50 on Tuesday after bouncing off the $3.40 support level in the previous session. However, the recovery is being overshadowed by three bearish signals that could push the token toward the $2.97 mark.
Institutional demand for NEAR has weakened, as evidenced by two consecutive weeks of net outflows from NEAR-focused investment products. According to SoSoValue, these funds saw no net inflows or outflows on Monday, but that flat reading followed $3.43 million in outflows for the week ending October 30 and another $4.38 million for the week ending November 6, totaling $7.81 million. The persistent redemptions suggest that institutional investors are reducing their exposure amid broader market uncertainty.
Derivatives data also points to declining participation. CoinGlass shows NEAR futures open interest at $820.64 million, up 1% in the last 24 hours but down significantly from the $1.2 billion recorded on October 22. Falling open interest indicates that traders are closing or reducing positions, reflecting weaker speculative interest as the cryptocurrency struggles to recover.
Demand among US investors appears subdued as well. CoinGlass data reveals that NEAR's Coinbase premium stood at -0.097% on Tuesday, meaning the token traded at a slight discount on Coinbase relative to the benchmark. A negative premium can signal weaker buying interest among Coinbase participants, particularly when accompanied by declining prices and reduced trading activity.
Technical picture remains bearish
Despite the rebound from $3.40, NEAR's technical structure remains bearish. The cryptocurrency is trading around $3.57, below its key exponential moving averages (EMAs) on the four-hour chart. The 50-period EMA sits at $3.8332, while the 200-period EMA is at $4.2614. Trading below both indicators suggests sellers dominate the near-term trend, with recovery attempts likely to face resistance.
NEAR is also forming a falling wedge pattern, with descending trendlines converging as price consolidates. The upper boundary is near $3.7981, and the lower support trendline is around $3.4000, reinforced by a horizontal support at $3.4030. This creates a critical demand zone where buyers may try to defend the cryptocurrency.
If NEAR breaks decisively below this support area, selling pressure could intensify, exposing the next downside target at $2.9780. Failure to stabilize around that level would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward $2.7280.
Momentum indicators also reflect bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 38, below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak buying momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows modest downside momentum, suggesting sellers retain an advantage despite the recent recovery.
Although the broader outlook is bearish, the falling wedge leaves room for a potential bullish breakout if buying pressure strengthens. A confirmed breakout above the pattern's upper boundary is necessary before treating it as a bullish signal. The first significant resistance is near $3.7981, followed by the 50-period EMA at $3.8332 and horizontal resistance at $3.9160. A convincing move above these levels would improve the technical structure and potentially open the door for a recovery toward the 200-period EMA around $4.2614.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
