Solana managed to stay above the $100 mark on Monday, but the cryptocurrency's near-term outlook remains clouded by sustained ETF withdrawals and a reduction in futures market exposure. The token was trading near $101.45 after recording three consecutive weekly declines, including a 2% drop last week.
Currently, SOL is trading below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), while longer-term support near $98 is emerging as a critical level for buyers to defend. Despite a recent network upgrade, market demand has yet to show a meaningful improvement.
Solana ETFs See Third Consecutive Week of Outflows
Data from SoSoValue indicates that Solana-focused exchange-traded funds experienced $17.30 million in net outflows last week, marking the third straight week of negative flows. This brings the monthly total to $72.24 million, underscoring continued redemptions from investment products tied to SOL.
These persistent outflows suggest weaker demand through those products, although fund flows alone do not reveal the identity or motivations of every investor reducing exposure. The ongoing withdrawals leave Solana without a stronger source of fund-related buying support as its price approaches a key technical level.
Derivatives Market Shows Cooling Activity
Solana's derivatives market also reflects a slowdown. According to CoinGlass, SOL futures open interest stood at $6.27 billion on Monday, down from $6.34 billion last week—a decline of roughly 2% in the dollar value of outstanding contracts. This decrease is consistent with reduced leveraged exposure, though falling spot prices can also lower dollar-denominated open interest.
The figures alone do not establish whether retail traders are responsible or whether positions were closed voluntarily or liquidated. Combined with ETF redemptions, the data points to a cautious trading environment.
The weakness persists despite last week's Alpenglow upgrade, which replaced TowerBFT with a new consensus engine called Votor, aiming to cut transaction finality from about 12 seconds to 150 milliseconds. That technical development has yet to translate into a sustained price recovery.
Solana Approaches Support at the 200-Day EMA
SOL remains below its 50-day EMA at $105.99 but above its 200-day EMA at $98.27. This positioning leaves the near-term trend weak while preserving an important element of its longer-term structure. The psychological $100 threshold is the immediate reference, with the 200-day average providing the next meaningful technical support.
A confirmed break below $98.27 would weaken that structure and could expose the rising support trendline near $86.67. Momentum indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. The daily Relative Strength Index stands at 36.83, showing subdued buying strength while remaining above the conventional oversold threshold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence line is slightly below its signal line in negative territory, indicating that downside momentum remains in place.
For a recovery to gain traction, Solana first needs to overcome the 50-day EMA near $107.33. A sustained move above that level would ease immediate selling pressure and improve the short-term technical picture. Beyond it, the September 25 high at $122.94 represents a more distant resistance level.
Until momentum strengthens, SOL's ability to defend the $100 area and the nearby 200-day EMA remains central to its outlook. Continued ETF withdrawals and softer derivatives activity could make that support harder to maintain.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
