XRP is trading near $1.30 on Thursday, with a bearish technical signal raising the possibility of a sharp decline toward the $1 mark. The cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain its recent recovery despite positive institutional announcements from Ripple.
A crossover between two key moving averages has emerged, adding to concerns that a break below $1.25 could trigger further selling. The 20-day exponential moving average has slipped below the 50-day average, indicating that short-term momentum is weakening relative to the longer-term trend.
Analyst ChartNerd, as covered by DailyCoin, compared this formation to a similar crossover that preceded a 30% decline in XRP. In that earlier instance, the token fell from approximately $1.40 to below $1. A comparable percentage drop from current levels would place XRP near $0.92, though historical patterns are not reliable predictors of future price movements.
Key Support Levels and Fair Value Gap
The immediate danger lies in a technical area known as a fair value gap, which extends from roughly $1 to $1.25. Analysts have identified $1.248 as a crucial breakdown level. A sustained move below this threshold could encourage additional selling, particularly if leveraged traders begin closing bullish positions.
On-chain data adds to the caution. Rising XRP balances on exchanges and signs that some large holders have reduced their exposure could precede selling, although such transfers do not necessarily indicate immediate liquidation.
Conflicting Signals: Buy Signal Emerges
Despite the bearish setup, some analysts believe selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. Ali Martinez has identified a TD Sequential buy signal on XRP's three-day chart. Previous occurrences of this signal preceded rallies of 31%, 24%, and 18%, suggesting a recovery remains possible.
However, Martinez's outlook is conditional on XRP defending the $1.25 support level. Holding this level could allow the cryptocurrency to recover toward $1.40, while a breakdown combined with further selling from large holders could expose $0.98.
Immediate resistance is seen around $1.35, followed by moving averages near $1.36–$1.37. Reclaiming these levels would strengthen the recovery case and challenge the bearish outlook.
Investors are now weighing these competing scenarios, with the $1.25 support level serving as the pivotal point for XRP's next move.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
