SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares slipped about 4% on Wednesday to around $147, erasing most of the previous session's 3.7% gain, as another large batch of shares became eligible for trading. The stock has still gained more than 7% over the past month, reflecting investor optimism despite ongoing supply overhang.
The decline coincided with the company's third scheduled lockup expiration, which released up to 319 million Class A shares, valued at roughly $49 billion based on recent prices. An additional 59.1 million affiliate shares are set to unlock on Thursday, adding to the potential selling pressure.
Lockup schedule and market impact
SpaceX entered this unlock with a stronger footing than in previous releases. The stock closed at $153.47 on September 8, compared with $139.65 ahead of the August unlock. About 912 million shares became available on August 6, and another 319 million were unlocked on August 20. Over 650 million shares are expected to become tradable in September, followed by more than 630 million in October. By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion shares are projected to have been released for trading.
The growing supply of tradable shares has been a key factor in SpaceX's early market performance. Investors have been cautious about buying ahead of potential profit-taking by early shareholders, which contributed to the stock's decline below $105, well beneath its $135 IPO price. However, the August unlock demonstrated that a large increase in available shares does not necessarily lead to a sustained sell-off. More than 900 million shares became eligible on August 6, yet SpaceX recovered above its IPO price within days.
Now, market participants are watching whether the latest tranche will trigger similar selling pressure or if demand can absorb the additional supply. The stock's resilience after the August unlock suggests that some investors view the lockup expirations as buying opportunities, given the company's long-term growth prospects.
Starship reusability remains central to valuation
Beyond the immediate lockup overhang, investors are weighing how much of SpaceX's long-term growth potential depends on Starship. Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said Tuesday that making Starship fully reusable is central to justifying SpaceX's roughly $2 trillion valuation. His $220 price target is based on Starship achieving 20 to 50 flights per vehicle, low refurbishment costs, and rapid turnaround times.
“Our $220 target is a call on reuse of 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround,” Wlodarczak said. “If that is solved, the rest of the model can happen. If it is not, SPCX is a different and much smaller company.”
The potential payoff is significant. SpaceX says Starship can carry more than 100 metric tons of payload, more than four times the capacity of its Falcon 9 rocket. A fully reusable system could allow SpaceX to launch missions more frequently while reducing the cost per flight. However, Starship remains under development, with only two tests of the latest version conducted so far. The company has warned that development delays could continue and that significant problems could hurt its business.
SpaceX is expected to attempt its 14th Starship test as soon as next week, following a broadly successful mission in July. During that flight, SpaceX deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites before they burned up during planned reentry. The company has not yet disclosed the objectives for the 14th mission.
SpaceX has already spent at least $15 billion developing Starship, and its plans to expand launch capacity could require considerably more capital. The company intends to spend at least $100 billion on a new spaceport in Louisiana, primarily dedicated to Starship operations. These capital expenditures are a key consideration for investors, as they could impact cash flow and profitability in the near term.
For more context on SpaceX's market dynamics, see the September lockup details and the triple threat of technicals, unlock, and capex burn. Additionally, Morgan Stanley's $300 target highlights the potential upside if Starship development succeeds.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
