SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares closed above their initial public offering price on Wednesday, as investors weighed a massive proposed expansion in Louisiana that could significantly boost Starship launch capacity. The stock finished the session at $139.63, up 1.2%, versus the $135 IPO price from June. The shares have traded in a wide range since listing, hitting a high of $225.64 and a low of $104.83.
The catalyst for the move was the announcement of a planned $100 billion investment in a 125,000-acre Starbase complex in southern Louisiana. Construction is slated to begin in 2027, with the first Starship launch targeted for 2029. The facility is expected to include multiple launch complexes, propellant infrastructure, power generation, and vehicle-processing facilities. Elon Musk has suggested the site could eventually support more than 30 Starship launches per day.
Morgan Stanley reiterates $300 target
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated a $300 price target following the Louisiana news, putting a bullish Wall Street call back in focus. Jonas believes the Starbase Louisiana announcement suggests SpaceX's launch cadence could exceed the assumptions embedded in Morgan Stanley's long-term model. According to TipRanks, Jonas said, "In our view, investors do not appreciate the scale of what SpaceX is planning with Starship."
Morgan Stanley's model assumes roughly $3.5 trillion of SpaceX revenue by 2040, yet the bank argues the company would not need to use the Louisiana facility at full capacity to support the launch rate behind those forecasts. Jonas also described SpaceX as "attractively valued," noting the shares trade at around 10 times the firm's fiscal 2028 sales estimate, with revenue expected to grow about 70%, and roughly 25 times projected EBIT.
The $300 target becomes more relevant now, as Louisiana provides investors a tangible piece of infrastructure to connect with assumptions about dramatically higher Starship activity. The facility could remove one of the biggest infrastructure constraints preventing SpaceX from achieving a much higher launch cadence, according to Wolfe Research, which also reiterated an Outperform rating and $175 target after the announcement.
Louisiana could remove a major bottleneck
Starship's economics depend heavily on reuse and flight frequency. The more often SpaceX can launch and reuse vehicles, the more potential it has to lower unit costs while supporting Starlink, government missions, and longer-term orbital AI infrastructure ambitions. The Louisiana site, with its scale and planned infrastructure, is designed to support those ambitions.
However, the valuation debate remains unsettled. SpaceX is worth roughly $1.8 trillion despite carrying execution risk around Starship reuse, launch frequency, and the broader business. Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn recently called the IPO valuation "a marker that a speculative top is near," according to Business Insider. Greenlight questioned projections that SpaceX could eventually generate around $1 trillion of high-margin annual revenue, noting that such a figure would exceed the current revenues of Amazon or Walmart. Einhorn also highlighted negative free-cash-flow forecasts.
Morningstar is more cautious, with analyst Nicolas Owens valuing SpaceX at $63 a share around the IPO. His optimistic "moonshot" scenario reached $154, but depended on rapid Starship reuse and successful orbital data centres. That gap shows why recovering above $135 does not validate Morgan Stanley's $300 case by itself.
Starbase Louisiana gives the bull thesis more physical support, but the facility will not begin launches for years. SpaceX still must prove that unprecedented infrastructure can translate into equally unprecedented revenue and profits. For now, the stock's move above its IPO price reflects renewed optimism, but the path to $300 remains steep.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
