SpaceX (SPCX) shares staged a sharp rebound on Monday, briefly touching the company's $135 initial public offering price for the first time in weeks. The move marks a dramatic turnaround from the recent lows, when the stock closed at $108.27 just days ago. Friday's 16% surge ended a four-week losing streak and set the stage for the stock's highest close in about a month.
The rebound follows the expiration of the first major lock-up period for SpaceX shares, an event that had been closely monitored by investors. The lock-up release made roughly 911 million restricted insider shares eligible for trading, expanding the public float from about 5% of total shares to more than 1.5 billion shares. Wall Street had widely anticipated significant selling pressure from the unlock, but the stock's rally suggests that pressure was far less severe than feared.
Lockup expiry fails to trigger expected selling pressure
Before the lock-up expiration, limited liquidity had contributed to heightened volatility in SpaceX shares. The expansion of the float provides institutional investors with a larger pool of shares to accumulate, which some analysts view as a positive development for the stock's long-term stability. The 16% rally on Friday, following the lockup expiry, indicates that insiders were not rushing to sell, contrary to market expectations.
This dynamic is reminiscent of other high-profile lockup expirations where selling pressure was overestimated. For context, the lockup expiry unlocked 911.5 million shares, but the market's reaction suggests that many insiders are holding onto their positions, possibly betting on further upside.
Analysts remain firmly bullish on SPCX stock
SpaceX's rebound has also been supported by its first earnings report as a public company. The company reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, exceeding the $6.93 billion expected by analysts. CFO Bret Johnsen stated during the earnings call that the company is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year.
Deutsche Bank analysts called that target "likely very achievable," noting that SpaceX's second-quarter run rate was about $31 billion. They argued that reaching the $100 billion target would depend primarily on contributions from the company's neocloud business and its acquisition of AI coding company Cursor. The revenue outlook comes as investors continue to assess SpaceX's large investments in AI infrastructure and the company's ability to convert those investments into new revenue streams.
Citi analysts also raised their 2026 and 2027 forecasts after incorporating the sources of SpaceX's second-quarter earnings beat. They reiterated their Buy rating on the stock while keeping their $200 price target unchanged. In a Sunday note, they wrote: "Given the dependency of out-year forecasts/valuation on successful Starship milestones, we leave our PT unchanged at $200 and plan to adjust our target ratably toward the $900+ long term valuation level we outlined in our initiation as major milestones are hit."
Retail investors turn cautious
Retail investors, who had been aggressive buyers during the post-IPO decline, have shifted their positioning. According to Vanda Research data cited in a Reuters report, individual investors were net sellers of SpaceX shares on August 7, selling a net $4.5 million. This marked the first net-negative reading for retail trading in the stock since its June 12 debut.
The shift came shortly after retail investors bought shares aggressively during an earlier selloff. Vanda noted that retail investors' net buying on August 5, when SpaceX shares fell 13.6%, ranked as their fourth-highest level since the IPO. The change in retail positioning followed SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report, which highlighted faster potential returns from AI spending while leaving investors to assess how long the company's profitable Starlink business can support the costs of its AI expansion.
SpaceX shares had risen as much as 67% above the $135 IPO price in June before giving back those gains and falling more than 20% below the IPO price in August. The latest rebound has brought the stock back toward its debut valuation as investors weigh stronger revenue expectations against the company's ongoing investment requirements and future Starship milestones.
For investors tracking the broader space sector, Rocket Lab's recent surge and Cathie Wood's accumulation of SpaceX shares offer additional context. Meanwhile, SpaceX's AI spending spree has implications for chipmakers like Nvidia, Micron, and SK Hynix.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
