Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX, a level that implies roughly 85% upside from the stock's October 9 close of $162.57. The call places the rocket maker and satellite operator at the center of Wall Street's debate over the economics of next-generation space infrastructure.
Lead analyst Adam Jonas told clients that the next two Starship missions could materially shape how investors value the company's growth pipeline. SpaceX is simultaneously pushing into satellite communications, orbital computing, and off-world manufacturing, giving the stock multiple narratives beyond launch services.
Shares were up 0.78% in Monday trading at the time of writing.
Reusability as the core growth driver
Morgan Stanley views the upcoming Starship Flight 15 as a potential milestone on the path to full reusability. The mission is tentatively set for November 8, though SpaceX has not confirmed the date. It may include an attempt to catch the returning vehicle with mechanical arms at the launch tower, a maneuver Chief Executive Elon Musk has said the company hopes to try.
Flight 16 could follow as soon as December 10, according to preliminary air traffic notices cited by the bank. That date is also unconfirmed.
If reusability works, it would lower per-launch costs and raise the mass SpaceX can place in orbit. Those gains would feed directly into the expansion of the Starlink constellation and open doors in emerging areas such as orbital computing and manufacturing.
Morgan Stanley estimates that a single Starship flight carrying next-generation Starlink satellites could deliver bandwidth equivalent to one to more than two months of current Falcon 9 deployments. Each Starlink V3 satellite offers roughly ten times the downlink capacity of the V2 Mini units launched on Falcon 9, according to the report.
Starlink economics could improve
The bank expects Starship to speed up Starlink's rollout by hauling larger payloads. After 26 Starlink V3 satellites flew on Flight 14, Jonas anticipates the next mission will carry a similar or larger load. Starship can accommodate as many as 60 of these satellites, which could reduce the number of launches needed to grow the network.
Separately, Pivotal Research lifted its SpaceX price target to $230 from $220 while keeping a Buy rating, after the company agreed to acquire nationwide wireless spectrum from Grain Management. Analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said SpaceX has effectively created a legitimate new low-cost wireless carrier through Starlink Mobile, which could initially target rural and suburban customers by bundling service with existing Starlink hardware.
The roughly $8 billion agreement covers up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band. Lower-frequency airwaves travel farther and penetrate buildings more effectively, which could extend mobile coverage.
Engine issues remain a risk
Despite the upside case, Morgan Stanley flagged technical hurdles that could slow the program. All three launches using the V3 configuration suffered booster engine problems before splashdown, and two also ran into failures with the spacecraft's vacuum engines.
While the number of booster engines firing successfully during landing attempts has improved, further setbacks could delay hardware reuse and limit the launch cadence in 2027. Investors will therefore be watching the next missions for signs that SpaceX can raise reliability and move closer to routine reuse.
The results could shape expectations for Starship's role in expanding Starlink, cutting launch costs, and supporting SpaceX's longer-term growth ambitions.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
