Rocket Lab's stock has staged a powerful rebound over the past week, climbing from a monthly low of $57.80 to an intraday high of $82.83—its strongest level since early July. The 43% advance mirrors a broader rally across the space sector, with names like SpaceX and Planet Labs also drawing investor enthusiasm. All eyes now turn to the company's second-quarter earnings release, scheduled for later today, which will test whether the momentum can hold or if a reversal is imminent.
Backlog growth fuels optimism
The recent surge is underpinned by a string of major contract wins. Last week, the U.S. government awarded Rocket Lab a $397 million contract to launch flatellites for the Space Force using its Neutron rocket, with an option to expand the order in coming years. That followed a $266 million deal with the U.S. Space Force for suborbital launches and a new agreement with iQPS for three dedicated missions, adding to prior orders.
These wins have swelled the company's backlog, a key metric for future revenue visibility. Analysts tracking the stock expect second-quarter revenue to jump nearly 60% year-over-year to $230 million, with the company's track record of beating estimates suggesting the actual figure could come in higher. Losses are also projected to narrow, from $0.13 per share a year ago to $0.08, as Rocket Lab continues its path toward profitability by fiscal 2028.
First earnings since Iridium acquisition
This report marks the first since Rocket Lab announced its $8 billion acquisition of Iridium, a major player in the satellite communications industry. If completed, the deal would solidify Rocket Lab's transition into a vertically integrated space company, expanding its market share across launch services, satellite manufacturing, and now communications. The company has been on an acquisition spree this year, snapping up Mynaric AG (laser/optical communications), Motiv Space Systems (space robotics), and Optical Support Inc. Earlier deals include Geost in 2025 and SolAero, Planetary Systems, and Advanced Solutions in 2021.
Wall Street remains broadly bullish. Citigroup recently reiterated its outperform rating, KGI Securities upgraded the stock from neutral to outperform, and Bank of America raised its price target from $105 to $115. These endorsements reflect confidence in Rocket Lab's revenue growth trajectory and its expanding role in the space economy.
Technical picture shows a potential risk
From a chart perspective, Rocket Lab's stock has reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average and remains above an ascending trendline that has provided support since April of last year. That suggests bulls are still in control in the near term. However, a closer look reveals a developing head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder forming near $100 and the neckline at $57. If the stock fails to break above $100 and then slips below $57, it could signal a more significant downturn.
Investors will be watching the earnings release and management's guidance for clues on whether the recent contract wins can sustain the growth momentum. The broader space sector has been volatile, and Rocket Lab's valuation remains elevated, so the reaction to the numbers could be sharp. For context, other high-flying names like CoreWeave have seen similar pre-earnings rallies face volatility, while Plug Power also experienced options-driven swings ahead of its report.
As the earnings season unfolds, the market's focus on AI and space-related names remains intense, as seen in the recent rallies in Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla. Rocket Lab's results will offer a fresh data point on the health of the commercial space industry and whether the recent surge is justified.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
