Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $74,700 on Tuesday, recovering slightly from Monday's selloff, as market participants await the release of the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The cryptocurrency remains under pressure, struggling to reclaim key technical levels after last week's decline, with institutional demand showing signs of weakness.
CPI report could trigger fresh volatility
Investors are closely watching Tuesday's inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy move. The October CPI report comes at a critical juncture, following stronger-than-expected US employment figures that have reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign more than an 80% probability to an interest rate hike at the Fed's December meeting.
A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen the case for additional tightening, potentially intensifying selling pressure across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, softer inflation figures might ease concerns about further rate increases and encourage investors to re-enter the market.
Geopolitical developments are also adding to uncertainty. US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about progress toward ending the US-Iran conflict, suggesting that renewed military strikes were unlikely. However, Iranian officials have disputed reports of active peace negotiations, with Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, reiterating that Washington must accept Tehran's seven conditions before the conflict can end.
Bitcoin ETF outflows continue
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains weak, with US spot ETFs extending their recent withdrawal streak. According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $201.08 million in net outflows on Monday, continuing the negative trend established last week. The latest withdrawals followed $1.28 billion in net outflows during the previous week, marking the largest weekly redemptions since late June.
The sustained selling pressure suggests that institutional investors remain cautious about Bitcoin's near-term outlook amid macroeconomic uncertainty and deteriorating technical conditions. While ETF investors continue reducing their exposure, corporate Bitcoin accumulation remains active. Michael Saylor announced on Monday that Strategy acquired an additional 1,036 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 850,364 BTC.
Technical outlook: risk of decline toward $70,000
Bitcoin's technical picture remains bearish as the cryptocurrency trades below its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). At the time of writing, BTC is below its 200-day EMA at $76,444, which represents the nearest significant resistance level. Higher resistance comes from the 100-day EMA at $77,574 and the 50-day EMA at $79,141. Beyond these levels, the next significant horizontal resistance stands near $85,000.
Momentum indicators also reinforce the bearish outlook. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 36, indicating weak buying momentum and suggesting that Bitcoin is approaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, highlighting persistent downward momentum.
If Bitcoin continues declining, the psychological $70,000 level could emerge as the next major support area. A decisive breakdown below this threshold would weaken the technical structure further and potentially expose BTC to additional losses. The near-term outlook remains bearish while BTC trades below $76,444, with the psychological $70,000 level representing the next major downside target.
Tuesday's CPI report could play a decisive role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes around current levels or extends its correction.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
