Bitcoin continues to face selling pressure, trading around $73,700 on Monday after extending its weekly losing streak to five consecutive weeks. The cryptocurrency remains below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,222, a level that previously acted as a key technical reference point.
The latest downturn is driven by weakening institutional demand. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows of $1.28 billion last week, the largest weekly withdrawals since late June, according to SoSoValue. This marks the second consecutive week of negative flows, indicating that institutional investors are growing cautious about Bitcoin's near-term prospects.
Persistent ETF outflows add selling pressure to the market, especially when combined with deteriorating technical conditions. Unless ETF demand improves in the coming sessions, Bitcoin could struggle to establish a meaningful recovery. Another week of substantial withdrawals would likely reinforce bearish sentiment and accelerate the ongoing correction.
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Macroeconomic developments are also complicating Bitcoin's recovery. Stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data have prompted investors to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. The upbeat employment figures suggest the labor market remains resilient, potentially giving policymakers more flexibility to maintain restrictive monetary conditions or raise borrowing costs further.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now assign an approximately 80.5% probability to a December interest rate hike, up from 72.8% before the employment report. Higher interest rates generally create a challenging environment for speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Technical Outlook: $70K in Focus
Bitcoin's technical picture remains fragile after a 4.47% decline last week. The weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $75,222 is a significant setback for buyers. If the current correction continues, Bitcoin could initially test the psychological support level at $70,000. A sustained breakdown below this area would increase the likelihood of a deeper decline toward the 200-week SMA at $68,031.
Momentum indicators also suggest weakening buying pressure. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 48, approaching the oversold threshold of 30, indicating that bullish momentum has faded. Meanwhile, the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, but its declining bars suggest that upward momentum is gradually weakening.
For investors navigating Bitcoin's volatility, choosing reliable crypto exchanges remains important, particularly as market uncertainty and sharp price swings increase trading risks.
A recovery above the 200-day EMA could encourage buyers to target the 100-day EMA, followed by the 50-day EMA. Beyond these levels, the $85,000 horizontal resistance zone remains a more ambitious upside target. However, failure to reclaim these moving averages would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to further losses, especially if institutional withdrawals continue and macroeconomic conditions remain unfavorable.
For now, the $75,222 level remains an important near-term threshold for Bitcoin, while $70,000 represents a key support area that traders will be watching as bearish pressure persists.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
