Cardano's native token, ADA, has declined 2% in the past 24 hours, trading near $0.161, even as the network successfully activated the landmark Van Rossem hard fork over the weekend. The upgrade, which introduced Protocol Version 11, is a significant technical milestone, but market data suggests traders remain skeptical about near-term price appreciation.
Van Rossem Hard Fork: A Governance Milestone
The Van Rossem hard fork, enacted on Saturday, marks the first major protocol upgrade fully approved and ratified through Cardano's onchain governance system. The upgrade brings several technical enhancements, including reduced smart contract execution costs via updated cost models, new capabilities for the Plutus smart contract platform, and foundational work for the upcoming Dijkstra era. This demonstrates the network's decentralized governance in action and strengthens its long-term scalability and cost-efficiency for decentralized applications.
Despite these advancements, market reaction has been muted. ADA continues to trade within a narrow range, failing to extend last week's recovery. According to Coinglass data, the funding rate for ADA turned negative on Friday and stood at -0.0029% on Monday. Negative funding rates indicate that traders holding short positions are paying those with long positions, a typical sign of bearish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.
Furthermore, Cardano's long-to-short ratio was 0.84 on Monday. A ratio below 1.0 means there are more short positions than long positions, suggesting many traders anticipate further price declines despite the protocol upgrade. This cautious positioning aligns with recent whale activity: as reported in Cardano Drops to $0.16 Despite Whales Accumulating 320M ADA Since July 7, large holders have been accumulating, yet the price has not responded positively.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, ADA remains under bearish control. The token is trading below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of approximately $0.177, the 100-day EMA of $0.205, and the 200-day EMA of $0.273. Staying below these key moving averages indicates that sellers dominate the broader market structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just below the neutral 50 level, reflecting weak momentum and a lack of clear directional conviction. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has edged into positive territory but is generating only modest bullish signals.
If buyers regain momentum, ADA could face initial resistance at $0.173, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.177. A daily close above these levels might open the path toward the previous trigger zone at $0.202 and the 100-day EMA at $0.205. The 200-day EMA at $0.273 remains a medium-term target for bulls. A sustained move above the 50-day EMA would improve the short-term outlook, while reclaiming the 100-day EMA could signal a stronger recovery.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.150. A decisive break below this level could expose ADA to renewed selling pressure toward the major demand zone at $0.138, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a close below $0.150 may accelerate losses.
For broader context, the cautious sentiment around ADA contrasts with other market movements. For instance, Gold Bounces Above $4,000 as Traders Await Key Inflation Data shows a different risk appetite among investors. Meanwhile, Cardano at Risk of 20% Drop as Whale Accumulation Stalls and Sentiment Fades highlights ongoing bearish pressures.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
