Bitcoin's attempt to establish a foothold above $80,000 has hit a wall, as a stronger-than-expected US jobs report revived fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike. The leading cryptocurrency traded near $79,000 on Sept. 4, up roughly 1% over the past 24 hours, after briefly touching an intraday high above $81,400 before retreating.
The reversal came after the August US payrolls report showed the economy added 162,000 jobs, nearly three times the 56,000 economists had forecast. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. July's payrolls were also revised upward from a 23,000 decline to a 21,000 increase.
Bitcoin had climbed from below $78,000 on Sept. 3, briefly trading near $82,000 on Friday before sliding back under $80,000. The seven-day performance remains roughly flat, underscoring the difficulty of sustaining gains above the psychologically significant level.
Macro headwinds vs. ETF demand
The initial move above $80,000 was fueled by comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled he could support holding rates steady at the September meeting if inflation continued to improve. That boosted expectations for a pause, lifting risk assets including Bitcoin.
Adding to the bullish momentum, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $731 million in net inflows on Sept. 3, their largest daily intake since January, according to SoSoValue data cited by crypto.news. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $454 million of that total.
However, Friday's employment figures reversed part of that macro trade. The probability of a September rate hike climbed to 62% following the payroll release, as stronger hiring gave policymakers more room to keep monetary policy restrictive. This has left Bitcoin caught between robust ETF demand and renewed interest-rate risk.
Key levels and technicals
Bitcoin's daily chart shows the price near $79,000 after the rejection from $81,400. The pullback has not yet negated the larger breakout from the $63,000–$65,000 area in August, but buyers have so far failed to establish $80,000 as support.
All three major simple moving averages remain well below the current price: the 50-day SMA at $68,759, the 100-day SMA at $66,330, and the 200-day SMA at $69,621. Bitcoin sits roughly 13% above the highest of those averages, leaving the daily trend positive but also creating room for a pullback without breaking the larger structure.
The Aroon indicator remains bullish, with Aroon Up at 92.86% and Aroon Down at 0%. Chaikin Money Flow is at 0.31, well above its zero line, indicating that accumulation continues to outweigh distribution on the daily timeframe.
Momentum, however, has cooled. The Commodity Channel Index has dropped to 63.51 after briefly exceeding 300 during the initial breakout, while its signal average remains higher at 104.98. The decline from the extreme reading fits the loss of momentum seen as Bitcoin was rejected near $82,000.
What to watch next
The next major US inflation reading is due on Sept. 11, and it could be pivotal. Waller tied his support for holding rates steady to continued progress on inflation, making the consumer price index particularly important after Friday's stronger labor figures.
Crypto regulation could provide a separate catalyst on Sept. 15, when a procedural Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is expected. The Federal Reserve's policy decision follows on Sept. 16, with investors watching both the rate decision and Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on inflation and employment.
ETF flows will remain relevant before these events. Several more days of strong inflows could help Bitcoin hold above $80,000, while fresh outflows could make another breakout harder.
Liquidity and price levels
The 48-hour Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows leverage clustered around $78,000–$78,700, with a larger pocket between roughly $76,000 and $77,000. These concentrations could draw price lower if selling continues.
On the upside, the largest nearby concentration sits around $81,700–$82,300, overlapping Friday's price high. A recovery through $80,000 could push Bitcoin toward that zone as short liquidations accelerate, while a break below $78,000 would increase the probability of a move toward $76,000–$77,000.
For context on how other assets are navigating similar macro pressures, see our coverage of Plug Power's key support test and Nike's ongoing slide.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
