Cardano (ADA) continued its downward trajectory on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive session of losses as both large holders and retail participants show signs of retreat. On-chain data reveals that whale wallets have paused their accumulation, while derivatives metrics indicate a reduction in leveraged positions following last week's rally. This combination has dampened short-term sentiment, leaving ADA vulnerable to further declines if buying interest does not re-emerge.
Whale Accumulation Remains Flat
Data from Santiment indicates that wallets holding more than 1 billion ADA have maintained their holdings at approximately 3.22 billion ADA, with balances largely unchanged since Friday. Similarly, addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have kept their positions steady at around 2.53 billion ADA over the same period. The lack of meaningful accumulation from these major investors suggests that institutional confidence has plateaued rather than strengthened, removing a potential catalyst for upward price momentum.
Retail sentiment has also weakened notably, as reflected in derivatives data from CoinGlass. ADA futures Open Interest (OI) dropped roughly 3% over the past 24 hours to $433.9 million, indicating that traders are closing leveraged positions. Meanwhile, Cardano's funding rate declined sharply from 0.0093% to 0.0029%, signaling reduced demand for leveraged long positions. Liquidation data further underscores the shift in sentiment: total liquidations exceeded $1.47 million in the last 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $1.1 million. The higher volume of long liquidations suggests that bullish traders absorbed most of the recent losses as buying pressure waned.
Technical Forecast: Bears Eye Deeper Pullback
The ADA/USD 4-hour chart reveals a mildly bearish outlook after the token slipped below a key moving average. At the time of writing, ADA is trading at $0.1786, below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.1861 and well beneath its 200-day EMA around $0.2940. This positioning indicates that while the short-term trend has weakened, the longer-term recovery remains constrained. If sellers maintain control and ADA records another decisive daily close below the 50-day EMA, the decline could extend toward the June 26 low at $0.1385. A move to that level would represent a decline of more than 20% from current prices.
Technical momentum indicators suggest that bullish strength is fading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, but its positive histogram continues to shrink, indicating weakening upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to around 48 after hitting overbought territory last week. The RSI's pullback suggests that buying pressure is cooling, reinforcing the cautious near-term outlook.
For buyers to regain control, ADA would first need to reclaim its 50-day EMA near $0.1861 with a decisive daily close above that level. Beyond that, the 200-day EMA around $0.2940 remains the next major resistance zone and represents a significant hurdle before a broader bullish trend could resume. Until then, Cardano's price action is likely to remain vulnerable to additional downside as both whale participation and retail demand continue to soften.
For context, recent developments in the broader crypto market have also influenced sentiment. For example, MemeCore Token's volatile recovery highlights the speculative nature of altcoins, while Cardano's previous 5% plunge amid whale selling underscores the impact of large holders on price dynamics.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
