Solana (SOL) continued its downward trajectory on Monday, trading around $86.25 after shedding more than 3% in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency is attempting a modest recovery, but the broader technical picture remains bearish following a breakdown below a long-standing ascending support trendline.
The latest weakness extends Solana's losing streak to five consecutive weeks, coinciding with sustained institutional withdrawals from Solana-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to SoSoValue, these funds have recorded nearly $170 million in net outflows over the past five weeks, with $26.25 million withdrawn last week alone. October saw the largest weekly outflow of $71.47 million during this stretch.
Derivatives data further underscores deteriorating sentiment. Open interest in SOL futures has fallen to $5.20 billion, the lowest since August 19, down from a peak of $7.62 billion on October 8. This $2.42 billion reduction suggests traders are closing positions rather than adding leverage. Funding rates are negative at -0.0033%, indicating that shorts are paying longs, a sign of bearish positioning. Over the last 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $39.22 million versus just $2.37 million in short liquidations, highlighting the pain inflicted on leveraged bulls.
Technical outlook: Support at $77.60 in focus
Solana's technical structure has weakened considerably. The price broke below the $87.80 support level earlier today and is now trading at $86.20. The cryptocurrency declined 8% last week after losing 19% in October, reflecting sustained selling pressure. SOL remains below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $99.26, which may now act as resistance.
The 50-day EMA, currently around $100.35, is approaching the 200-day EMA, setting up a potential death cross—a bearish crossover that would strengthen the case for a prolonged downtrend. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 27, placing SOL in oversold territory, which could trigger a temporary bounce but does not guarantee a reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, confirming bearish momentum.
With the $87.80 support broken, the immediate demand zone lies at $77.60, a strong EMA level that buyers must defend to prevent further declines. A decisive break below this area could accelerate the drop toward $70.26, the next significant support.
However, the oversold RSI suggests a short-term relief rally is possible if selling pressure eases. For a meaningful recovery, SOL must reclaim the broken ascending trendline near $90.41. A sustained move above that level could open the door for a retest of the horizontal resistance at $95.82, followed by the 200-day EMA near $99.26. Further gains toward the 50-day EMA around $100.35 would improve the technical outlook and signal that buyers are regaining control.
Institutional flows remain a key indicator to watch. A return to positive weekly ETF flows could signal stabilizing demand, while continued outflows would reinforce the bearish narrative. Until then, Solana faces elevated downside risk.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
