US stock futures pointed to a mixed open on Friday, with technology-heavy indices leading the way as traders positioned ahead of the August nonfarm payrolls report. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed roughly 135 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered near the flatline.
The moves come after a solid Thursday session, when equities rallied on comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggesting he could support keeping interest rates unchanged this month if inflation continues to cool. That shift in tone helped pull the implied probability of a September rate hike down to about 50%, down from roughly 63% earlier in the week.
Jobs report takes center stage
The August jobs report, due at 8:30 am ET, is the primary catalyst for Friday's trading. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 53,000, following a decline of 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.1%.
A weaker-than-expected print could reinforce concerns that hiring momentum has stalled, potentially making it harder for the Fed to justify another rate increase. Conversely, a stronger report could reignite upward pressure on Treasury yields and weigh on high-valuation growth stocks.
Waller's cautious tone offers breathing room
Waller noted that recent data showed signs of disinflation and indicated he would favor holding rates steady if that progress continues. His remarks were seen as a dovish signal, prompting a quick market response. Peter Williams of 22V Research noted that Waller remains data-dependent but appears reluctant to tighten unless inflation forces the issue.
That stance helped rate-sensitive technology shares rebound on Thursday, and Friday's futures action suggests investors are hoping the payrolls data will not derail the recent recovery.
Premarket movers: Lululemon and Adobe slide
In premarket trading, Lululemon Athletica plunged about 18% after the company cut its full-year outlook for the second time this year, citing weak sales in the Americas. The announcement comes just days before incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill takes the helm.
Adobe also fell roughly 3% after naming Anil Chakravarthy as its next chief executive, effective December 1. The decision surprised some investors who had viewed creative-business head David Wadhwani as the likely successor to Shantanu Narayen, adding uncertainty around the leadership transition.
September seasonality back in focus
With the Labor Day weekend approaching, market participants are also revisiting the historically weak performance of September. According to SimCorp's Melissa Brown, September has produced an average loss of 58 basis points over nearly 45 years, making it the weakest month of the year. The negative performance has historically been concentrated in the second half of the month, when average returns fall by more than 1%.
Brown cautioned that the pattern varies widely between years and should not be treated as a standalone sell signal. With consumer price index and producer price index data due next week, rates and inflation are likely to matter more than the calendar.
For investors tracking broad US equity benchmarks, the day's data could determine whether this week's recovery extends toward record highs or fades as bond yields resume their climb. Related market moves can be seen in recent sessions, such as the Dow's 627-point surge when rate-hike odds fell, and the AI-driven rally that offset geopolitical tensions.
As always, the jobs report will be scrutinized for its implications on the Fed's policy path, and any surprise could quickly shift market sentiment.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
