XRP is trading just above the psychologically important $1.00 level on Thursday, after modest declines this week. The token is down more than 1% in the last 24 hours, with mixed signals from derivatives and on-chain data leaving traders uncertain about whether a recovery or further downside is more likely.
Derivatives show bearish lean but positive funding
Data from CoinGlass shows that XRP's long-to-short ratio stood at 0.918 on Thursday, indicating that short positions slightly outnumber longs. This suggests a bearish tilt among traders, though the ratio is close to neutral and does not reflect strong conviction. If XRP slips below $1, leveraged long positions could be forced to close, potentially accelerating selling pressure.
However, the funding rate for XRP has turned positive, standing at 0.0079% on Thursday. Positive funding means long traders are paying shorts, which generally reflects a bullish bias in perpetual futures markets. Some traders appear willing to pay a premium to maintain bullish positions despite recent price weakness. Yet, positive funding alone does not guarantee a recovery; if prices continue to fall while funding remains positive, crowded longs could become vulnerable to liquidations.
Whale activity offers cautious optimism
CryptoQuant's summary indicators show cautious optimism for XRP. The futures market has recorded large whale orders, while most other tracked indicators remain neutral. Significant orders from large traders could support a recovery if they represent accumulation, though their presence does not ensure an immediate rebound. Similar whale activity has been noted in other assets, such as Dogecoin's recent accumulation, but the impact on price remains uncertain.
Technical picture remains bearish
XRP is trading around $1.009, only slightly above its crucial $1.00 support. The near-term technical structure is bearish, as XRP continues to trade below all three major exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 50-day EMA sits at $1.09, the 100-day EMA at $1.171, and the 200-day EMA at $1.362. These moving averages create multiple layers of overhead resistance that could restrict any recovery attempt.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40, indicating persistent selling pressure while approaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The $1.00 psychological level represents XRP's most immediate support, and buyers may attempt to defend this area, particularly as the RSI approaches oversold conditions.
Key levels to watch
A convincing rebound would bring the 50-day EMA at $1.09 into focus. Clearing that level could allow XRP to test the 100-day EMA at $1.171, followed by horizontal resistance around $1.30. More substantial resistance sits at the 200-day EMA near $1.362, with the higher $1.90 level remaining a distant bullish target.
On the downside, a decisive daily close below $1 would confirm weakening buyer demand and increase the likelihood of further losses. The conflicting signals from whales and technicals leave XRP at a crossroads, with traders watching closely for a breakout or breakdown. As seen in other markets, such as Cardano's recent whale accumulation, large orders can sometimes precede price moves, but they do not always lead to immediate gains.
For now, XRP's fate hinges on whether buyers can defend the $1 level and whether whale accumulation can offset bearish technicals. The broader crypto market remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors, as evidenced by recent moves in equities ahead of CPI data. Traders should monitor these developments for potential spillover effects.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
