Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing tentative signs of a potential rebound, trading above $0.070 on Tuesday. While the meme coin remains below its key moving averages, a bullish divergence in momentum indicators suggests that selling pressure may be easing.
Data from Santiment's Supply Distribution reveals that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE have collectively added approximately 180 million tokens since Saturday. This accumulation during the recent price dip indicates that some large investors are positioning for a recovery. In contrast, wallets holding between 100,000 and one million DOGE have shed around 10 million tokens over the same period, highlighting a divergence in sentiment among different holder cohorts.
Derivatives metrics also point to improving trader sentiment. CoinGlass data shows DOGE's long-to-short ratio climbed to 1.0803 on Tuesday, its highest level in over a month. A ratio above one suggests that more traders are betting on price increases than declines. Additionally, the funding rate turned positive on July 24 and has since risen to 0.0092%, indicating growing demand for long positions. However, elevated long exposure could amplify liquidation risks if DOGE breaks below key support.
Technical Outlook: Bullish Divergence, But Resistance Ahead
On the daily chart, DOGE is consolidating around $0.070, holding just above the psychological support level. The cryptocurrency remains below its 50-day EMA at approximately $0.074 and its 100-day EMA at $0.081, keeping the broader trend bearish. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence: DOGE made a lower price low on August 1, while the RSI printed a higher low. This pattern often signals that bearish momentum is waning, though it does not guarantee a reversal.
If a recovery takes hold, the 50-day EMA at $0.074 will be the first major resistance. A break above that could open the door to the descending trendline near $0.076. Sellers may defend this zone, making the $0.074–$0.076 range a critical hurdle. A decisive close above the trendline would strengthen the short-term bullish case and potentially pave the way toward the 100-day EMA at $0.081. Beyond that, the horizontal resistance at $0.088 would be the next target.
On the downside, the $0.070 level provides immediate support. If DOGE loses this floor, the yearly low at $0.067 becomes the next key level to watch. A daily close below $0.067 would invalidate the emerging recovery thesis and could lead to a decline toward $0.065.
For now, whale accumulation, positive derivatives metrics, and the bullish momentum divergence suggest that selling pressure is weakening. However, a breakout above $0.076 is necessary to confirm a sustained recovery. Similar patterns have been observed in other cryptocurrencies; for instance, Shiba Inu whales have also been accumulating as prices test key levels. Meanwhile, Cardano whales have added 110M ADA near resistance, and Pi Network faces similar resistance challenges.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
