Cardano's ADA token is trading around $0.196 on Monday, following a double-digit percentage gain over the past two weeks. The recent rally has been underpinned by steady accumulation from large wallet holders and a shift in derivatives market sentiment, though the token still faces significant overhead resistance.
Whale Accumulation Signals Confidence
Data from Santiment's Supply Distribution reveals that wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA, as well as those controlling 10 million to 100 million ADA, have collectively added 110 million tokens since Friday. This buying activity suggests that large investors are using the recent price weakness to increase their positions rather than reduce exposure.
Continued accumulation among whales can reduce the available supply of ADA on exchanges, potentially strengthening the token's long-term outlook. However, such buying does not guarantee an immediate price surge, especially while ADA remains below key resistance levels.
Derivatives Market Turns Mildly Bullish
Cardano's derivatives market is showing signs of improving sentiment. According to CoinGlass, the Open Interest-weighted funding rate turned positive on Saturday and stood at 0.0038% on Monday. A positive funding rate indicates that long traders are paying shorts, reflecting growing confidence in ADA's potential to extend its rally.
The funding rate remains modest, suggesting that bullish positioning has not yet reached excessive leverage levels. Additionally, Cardano's long-to-short ratio climbed to 0.99 on Monday, approaching the neutral level of 1. A move above 1 would signal that long positions have gained the upper hand, while the current reading indicates that bearish sentiment is gradually fading.
CryptoQuant's market summary reinforces this moderately positive outlook, showing large whale orders in Cardano's futures market while other indicators remain neutral. Together, these metrics point to a mild bullish shift rather than an aggressive surge in speculative demand.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Cardano is currently trading near $0.196, holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.180. The token has also reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $0.195 and broken above a descending trendline around $0.176, adding technical credibility to the recovery.
However, ADA remains near its 100-day EMA at $0.196 and well below the 200-day EMA at $0.254. This indicates that the broader trend is still bearish, and the token faces substantial overhead supply. A sustained move above the 100-day EMA would strengthen the near-term bullish case and could pave the way for a second leg higher.
Momentum indicators are improving, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64, comfortably above the neutral 50 level but still below the overbought threshold of 70. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also positive, reinforcing the improving bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance sits at the 100-day EMA around $0.196. A decisive break above this level could allow ADA to target the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.213, followed by the 61.8% retracement near $0.231 and a horizontal barrier at $0.236. The $0.213–$0.236 region represents a significant resistance cluster; clearing it would weaken the broader bearish structure and open the path toward the next major hurdle at $0.2991.
On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $0.195 provides the first line of support. If ADA loses this level, attention would shift to the 50-day EMA at $0.180 and the former descending trendline around $0.176. Deeper losses could bring the retracement at $0.173 into focus, with the horizontal floor at $0.150 as the next major downside target.
For now, whale accumulation and improving derivatives sentiment support Cardano's recovery. However, ADA must hold above $0.195 and decisively clear the $0.196 resistance area to confirm another bullish leg. Investors may also be watching broader market trends, such as BNB's recent derivatives-driven breakout and XRP's ETF-driven momentum, as these could influence sentiment across the crypto space.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
