SpaceX (SPCX) shares declined more than 3% in early trading Thursday, extending a volatile stretch as the market awaits the company's delayed Starship test flight. The stock traded near $111.35 after falling 6.7% on Wednesday, continuing its slide below the $135 IPO price.
The broader market also weighed on sentiment, with S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.
Starship Delay Weighs on Sentiment
Investor attention is focused on the 13th Starship test flight, originally scheduled for July 16 but postponed due to an engine issue. The mission, now expected to launch later Thursday from Texas, is viewed as a key catalyst for the newly public space and AI company.
The test flight is seen as a critical milestone for SpaceX to demonstrate continued advancement in its launch capabilities, which investors view as essential to justifying the company's premium valuation. According to available data, SpaceX trades at roughly 40 times estimated 2026 sales—a multiple that has drawn scrutiny given the company's current financial profile.
Short Sellers Intensify Bearish Bets
Bearish investors have increased their positions as the stock fell below its IPO price. According to Ortex Technologies data cited by Reuters, short sellers are sitting on an estimated $15.5 billion in paper profits since SpaceX's mid-June listing. The stock reached a post-listing high of $225.64 before falling to a record low of $115.26 on Wednesday.
"There is no sign of short sellers taking profits on SpaceX," Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg told Reuters. "If anything they are leaning in harder." Ortex data shows approximately 360 million SpaceX shares—about 56% of the free float—were on loan through Tuesday, indicating sustained bearish positioning.
CEO Elon Musk responded earlier this week with a warning to short sellers. "Survival probability of firms who maintain significant short position in SPCX over time is very low," Musk wrote on X. For more context, see our earlier report: Elon Musk Warns SpaceX Short Sellers of 'Low Survival Probability' as Short Interest Hits 32%.
Analysts Remain Broadly Bullish
Despite the recent share price weakness, Wall Street analysts maintain a largely positive outlook. According to LSEG data, 27 of 32 analysts covering the stock recommend buying, four have Hold-equivalent ratings, and one recommends selling.
Supportive analysts point to SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet business, government launch operations, and Musk's track record of attracting investor interest as reasons for a valuation premium—even though the company reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion last year. Thursday's Starship test flight is seen as a potential near-term catalyst ahead of the company's upcoming earnings report and continued expansion of its public float.
For more on the dynamics at play, read: SpaceX Short Interest Surges to 29% of Float: Is a Meme Stock Squeeze Brewing? and SpaceX Stock Dips Below $135 IPO Price Amid Post-Listing Volatility.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
