SpaceX (SPCX) shares declined approximately 2% on Wednesday to $133.34, falling below the $135 initial public offering price set during last month's record $86 billion listing. The move marks the stock's lowest level since its market debut, as initial enthusiasm continues to wane.
The stock's trajectory has been notably volatile since its listing. After surging nearly 50% in the first three trading days, SpaceX shares have since surrendered much of those gains, losing roughly a quarter of their value over the subsequent three sessions. This pattern reflects the typical post-IPO volatility seen in high-profile listings, compounded by broader market uncertainty.
Lockup Expirations Could Add Pressure
Investors may face additional turbulence in the coming weeks as the first share lockup expirations approach. These lockups, which have prevented early investors from selling their holdings, are scheduled to expire after the company reports its first quarterly earnings as a public entity. If early shareholders choose to sell, the influx of additional shares could exert further downward pressure on the stock.
Some of SpaceX's early post-listing gains may also have been amplified by passive investment funds tracking major equity indexes. The company was added to the Nasdaq-100 in July after Nasdaq revised its eligibility rules to allow newly listed large-cap companies to join the benchmark after as few as 15 trading days, compared with the previous three-month waiting period. Additionally, SpaceX joined the Russell 1000 Index in late June, just two weeks after its IPO, prompting further purchases by index-tracking funds.
Analysts Remain Broadly Optimistic
Despite the recent decline, Wall Street has maintained a largely positive outlook on the stock. The expiration of the post-IPO quiet period for banks that participated in the offering led to a wave of analyst coverage, including Raymond James issuing the Street's highest published price target of $800 per share. According to Bloomberg data, more than 80% of analysts covering the stock have assigned buy-equivalent ratings, with an average price target of approximately $238 per share—implying roughly 78% upside from current trading levels.
For a broader perspective on recent market movements, see our coverage of the FTSE 100 Slips 0.1% as Middle East Tensions Offset Energy Rally.
UBS Sees Launch as Potential Catalyst
UBS analyst Gavin Parsons noted that SpaceX's upcoming rocket launch could provide a near-term catalyst for the shares if the mission is successful. In a note cited by CNBC, Parsons wrote that "SpaceX has made multiple hardware and software upgrades since the last flight," adding that "this flight would demonstrate multiple new milestones and in our view be a positive for the stock." UBS maintains a Buy rating on SpaceX with a $210 price target, implying approximately 54% upside from Tuesday's closing price.
SpaceX is scheduled to conduct its 13th rocket launch on Thursday. According to Parsons, the mission supports UBS's forecast for four commercial launches this year and 1,588 flights in 2031.
For more on SpaceX's recent performance and analyst expectations, see SpaceX Stock Drops 40% from Peak, Yet Analysts See 76% Rebound Potential and SpaceX Stock Hovers Near $135 IPO Price as Analysts Maintain 70% Upside Target.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
