Solana (SOL) is trading around $102, down 2% on Tuesday, as a group of large derivatives traders positions for a rebound ahead of a scheduled network upgrade. Data from CoinGlass shows that five whale addresses on the Hyperliquid exchange opened a combined $9.11 million in SOL long positions between September 7 and September 8.
The bullish bets come just before a Solana protocol upgrade set for September 9, which will increase the maximum transaction size from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes. This change is expected to allow developers to bundle more instructions into a single transaction, potentially reducing the need for multiple steps in complex operations. While Solana already offers fast and low-cost transactions, the previous byte limit constrained data-heavy applications.
Despite the whale activity, broader derivatives metrics paint a more cautious picture. SOL's funding rate remains positive at 0.0025%, indicating that long-position holders are paying shorts—a sign of lingering bullish demand. However, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.94, meaning short accounts outnumber long accounts. This suggests that the five whales are taking a contrarian stance against the wider futures market.
Further, trading volume has dropped 10% to $6.58 billion, and open interest has declined 1.21% to $6.47 billion. Lower volume and falling open interest point to reduced activity and some leveraged positions being closed, reflecting a cautious approach as the upgrade approaches.
On the institutional side, Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded inflows for ten consecutive weeks, indicating sustained demand through regulated investment products. This divergence between futures positioning and ETF flows creates a mixed outlook for the token.
Technically, SOL is trading within a symmetrical triangle on the four-hour chart, with a projected height of about 16%. A decisive move above the triangle resistance at $107 could trigger a rally toward $124. Conversely, a break below the lower trendline could lead to a decline toward $84, with the psychological support at $100 acting as the first line of defense.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 44, below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that momentum leans toward sellers. The immediate direction likely hinges on the September 9 upgrade and whether SOL can hold above $100 and break through $107.
For context, Solana's recent price action has been influenced by broader crypto market trends, including bitcoin's resistance at $80K and ongoing ETF inflows. Additionally, Solana's ETF inflows and on-chain activity have been supportive, while innovations like gold-backed collateral for validators highlight the ecosystem's development.
As the upgrade goes live, traders will watch whether the whale-backed bullish scenario gains traction or if the broader market's caution prevails. A clear break above $107 would strengthen the case for a move toward $124, while losing $100 could open the door to deeper losses.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
