Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla shares moved higher in Monday's premarket session, extending Friday's tech-led rally that followed a weaker-than-expected US jobs report. The July payrolls figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, which pushed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut to roughly 44%, according to market pricing. As a result, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%, with Nvidia up about 0.4%, AMD gaining 0.9%, and Tesla adding roughly 1% in early trading.
The broader market backdrop remains supportive for growth stocks, with the S&P 500 closing at a record on Friday. Investors are now weighing whether easing rate pressure can sustain the rally, or if Wednesday's inflation report will force a reassessment. The upcoming CPI data could either reinforce the case for a September cut or introduce fresh uncertainty, making it a key catalyst for the week.
Nvidia: Strongest Fundamental Momentum
Nvidia enters the week with the most compelling growth narrative. Shares jumped 11.6% last week, their best weekly gain since May 2025, after Elon Musk announced that SpaceX would build its future AI infrastructure exclusively on Nvidia's Vera Rubin architecture. This news, combined with continued signals from Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta about heavy AI infrastructure spending, has reinforced optimism around the company's data-center growth trajectory.
Wolfe Research analyst Chris Caso noted that SpaceX's planned computing expansion alone could account for more than the $160 billion of incremental Nvidia data-center growth that Wall Street expects in 2027. Caso argued that the announcement demonstrates AI spending growth can continue, and that consensus estimates look "very conservative." This gives Nvidia more than just a rate-sensitive bounce; it represents a new major customer at a time when investors are debating whether the AI capital-spending cycle is nearing a peak. Barron's also highlighted that investors have recently favored established leaders like Nvidia over competitors still needing to prove execution.
AMD: Bounce After Expectations Reset
AMD's situation is different. The company reported record second-quarter revenue of $11.54 billion, up 50% year over year, with adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share. However, third-quarter adjusted gross-margin guidance of 56%, unchanged from the prior quarter, disappointed investors who were looking for stronger operating leverage from booming AI demand.
William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji said AMD's report left "much to prove," citing intense competition and the need for its Helios platform to translate into accelerator share gains. JPMorgan's Harlan Sur echoed that sentiment, noting that gross-margin guidance landed modestly below buy-side expectations. Despite these concerns, Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland expects AMD's server CPUs to remain strong and sees a data-center GPU revenue ramp later this year as MI450 chips and Helios deployments accelerate. AMD has also agreed to acquire AI-inference specialist Taalas, extending its effort to build a broader AI platform.
Tesla: The Wildcard Before CPI
Tesla's rebound depends on investors believing its autonomy story can eventually outweigh weak near-term profitability. The shares gained 2.8% on Friday and added another 1% premarket Monday. Stifel maintains a Buy rating and a $491 price target, citing progress in Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi, alongside improving vehicle demand and Tesla's strongest order backlog since 2023.
Jefferies, however, is cautious. The firm cut its price target to $350 from $400 and retained a Hold rating after reducing its 2026 EBIT forecast by 37% to $3.9 billion, citing disappointing second-quarter operating leverage. That divide makes Tesla the most sensitive test of Monday's risk appetite, as investors weigh the potential of autonomy against current financial performance.
As the market awaits Wednesday's CPI report, the tech sector's direction may hinge on whether rate cut expectations hold. For now, Nvidia's AI momentum, AMD's margin challenges, and Tesla's autonomy narrative are all in play, with each stock offering a different risk-reward profile. Investors will be watching closely to see if the rally can sustain itself or if inflation data will shift the narrative.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
