CoreWeave's stock has staged a sharp recovery over the past few weeks, climbing from a July 29 low of $60 to around $90.6. That represents a gain of more than 50%, as investor sentiment rotates back toward artificial intelligence names. The rally faces a key test this week when the company reports its second-quarter financial results.
Earnings expectations and growth trajectory
CoreWeave, a former Bitcoin miner with Nvidia as its largest shareholder, has seen its shares under pressure since peaking at $187 in June of last year. Concerns about AI spending and the company's capital expenditure plans dragged the stock to a low of $60 in July. However, the recent rebound has lifted the stock to its highest level since July 9, coinciding with a broader recovery in AI leaders like Nvidia and AMD.
When CoreWeave reports on Tuesday, analysts expect revenue to have surged roughly 110% year-over-year to $2.56 billion for the quarter. That would follow a first quarter in which revenue jumped from $982 million to $2.07 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose from $602 million to $1.1 billion. The company's backlog is also expected to cross the $100 billion milestone, underscoring its rapid growth.
For the full year, CoreWeave generated $5.13 billion in revenue in 2024, so a $2.56 billion quarterly figure would represent a significant acceleration. Third-quarter revenue is projected at $3.42 billion, up 150% year-over-year. However, the company's loss per share is expected to widen from $0.60 in Q2 2025 to $1.45, reflecting heavy investment in infrastructure.
Rising costs and competitive pressures
While revenue growth is impressive, investors are increasingly focused on the cost of building out data centers. Prices for servers, GPUs, and memory have all risen sharply in recent months. CoreWeave has guided to capital expenditures between $30 billion and $35 billion, which will require additional debt and potentially equity dilution.
The competitive landscape is also intensifying. SpaceX has secured large orders from companies like Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. Meta Platforms is reportedly exploring expansion into data center infrastructure, and numerous Bitcoin miners have pivoted into the AI hosting space. These developments could pressure CoreWeave's pricing power and market share.
Analyst targets and technical outlook
Wall Street remains largely bullish on CoreWeave. Citigroup has a price target of $142, Jefferies sees the stock at $150, and Mizuho, Macquarie, and Cantor Fitzgerald have targets of $100, $130, and $167, respectively.
From a technical perspective, the stock has formed a triple-bottom pattern at $66.26, a classic bullish reversal signal. It has also broken above its 50-day exponential moving average and the Strong, Pivot, Reverse level on the Murrey Math Lines. The next key resistance is at $100, which aligns with the Major S/R pivot point. However, a drop below the $75 support level remains possible if earnings disappoint or if the broader AI trade cools.
Investors will be watching not only the headline numbers but also management's commentary on capital spending, customer concentration, and the competitive environment. The outcome could set the tone for AI infrastructure stocks in the near term.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
