Pepe (PEPE) is trading nearly 1% lower on Monday, extending last week's 10% decline. The meme coin continues to face headwinds from a cautious broader cryptocurrency market, which is limiting any meaningful rebound.
Derivatives data signals fragile bullish positioning
According to CoinGlass, PEPE futures open interest has dropped over 5% in the past 24 hours to $193.99 million. This decline indicates that traders are closing positions or reducing exposure, reflecting lower participation in the market.
Liquidation data further underscores the fragility. Long liquidations reached approximately $328,070 in the last 24 hours, significantly outpacing short liquidations of $39,240. This imbalance suggests that recent volatility has forced leveraged bullish traders out of the market, leaving the long side vulnerable.
Despite the drop in open interest, PEPE's funding rate has turned positive, rising to 0.0098% from -0.0100% the previous day. A positive funding rate means long positions are paying shorts, which typically indicates some demand for bullish exposure. However, this improvement has not yet translated into a broader increase in open interest, suggesting that the shift in sentiment is not yet durable.
Technical outlook: key support at $0.00000255
PEPE is currently holding the critical support level at $0.00000255, which corresponds to its July 8 low. Defending this level is essential for any short-term rebound. However, the token remains confined within a consolidation range, with resistance at $0.00000314 (the June 15 high).
Technical indicators remain bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35, approaching oversold territory but not yet there, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below the zero line, with an expanding negative histogram, signaling strengthening bearish momentum.
These readings suggest that any recovery could be limited unless momentum improves significantly. A daily close below $0.00000255 would invalidate the current rebound and expose the July 1 low at $0.00000223, which would represent a decline of more than 10% from current levels.
On the upside, if PEPE can consolidate above support and attract buying interest, it could attempt a move toward the $0.00000314 resistance. However, until momentum indicators improve and open interest recovers, the short-term outlook remains cautious.
For broader context, Bitcoin's price action has been a key driver for the crypto market. As noted in our recent analysis, Bitcoin holds $63K but bearish signals persist, which could continue to weigh on altcoins like PEPE. Additionally, Bitcoin's $65K ceiling holds, and a break below key support could trigger further downside across the market.
Investors should monitor whether PEPE can maintain its support level and whether open interest begins to recover, as these will be critical for determining the next directional move.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
