Bitcoin opened the week on a cautious note, stabilizing above the $63,000 mark after a 3% decline last week. The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading near $63,300, finding support at the lower end of its recent range. However, the short-term outlook remains bearish as the asset continues to trade below key moving averages.
Technical indicators point to persistent selling pressure
Bitcoin remains below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $64,306, and significantly under the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $66,388 and $71,800, respectively. Trading below all three averages indicates that sellers maintain control of the broader trend. A recovery above the shorter-term averages would be needed to signal a shift in momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43, placing it in neutral-to-weak territory. Although not oversold, its position below the midpoint of 50 suggests that bearish momentum outweighs buying pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also remains negative, reinforcing the view that sellers retain an advantage despite the recent stabilization.
Resistance and support levels to watch
Bitcoin's first significant resistance is the 50-day EMA at $64,306. A move above this level could encourage buyers, but the asset would still face a stronger concentration of resistance higher up. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest price swing sits at $65,547, while the 100-day EMA at $66,388 aligns closely with horizontal resistance at $66,500. This creates a broad resistance zone between approximately $65,547 and $66,500. A decisive daily close above this region would be required to reduce the current bearish bias, potentially opening the door to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $67,940.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $62,586. More importantly, horizontal support sits at $62,300, a level that buyers have defended so far. A daily close below $62,300 would invalidate the recent stabilization and could expose Bitcoin to a deeper decline toward the lower boundary of its broader trading range.
Market context and broader trends
Bitcoin's cautious start comes amid a mixed week for risk assets. Equities have shown resilience, with the S&P 500 slipping from record highs as chip stocks dragged and retail data disappointed. Meanwhile, Solana holds above $76 on the back of MoneyGram integration and ETF inflows, highlighting selective interest in crypto assets.
Ethereum continues to consolidate, while XRP trades near the psychologically significant $1.00 mark, with weakening momentum raising the possibility of further losses. These dynamics suggest that while Bitcoin stabilizes, the broader crypto market remains under pressure.
Until Bitcoin breaks above the resistance cluster near $66,500, any short-term recovery is likely to remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. Traders will be watching the $62,300 support level closely, as a break below could trigger a more significant sell-off.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
