Oil prices remained elevated on Tuesday, with Brent hovering around $97.5 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $92.9, as fresh Iranian threats against energy infrastructure kept geopolitical risk premium intact. The benchmarks have climbed sharply over the past week amid intensified fighting around the Persian Gulf and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz transit data points to constrained flows
Market attention has shifted from military headlines to actual vessel movements. Kpler data showed only seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Monday, down from eight on Sunday. The 10-day average stood at about 10 ships per day, the lowest since May. While some vessels may be sailing with tracking systems disabled, the figures still indicate heavily constrained traffic.
Iran has threatened to target energy infrastructure across the Gulf if the US launches further attacks. Tehran is also discussing a shipping arrangement with Oman, though details remain unclear. ANZ Research analysts noted that the latest attacks reinforce the risk of a prolonged US-Iran standoff and continued disruption to regional energy flows.
US fuel stockpiles add to supply tightness
Supply strain extends beyond the Middle East. The latest US Energy Information Administration data showed commercial crude inventories fell 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million in the week through August 28. Gasoline stocks dropped to 205.7 million barrels, about 6% below their five-year seasonal average. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, stood at 104.2 million barrels, roughly 14% below the five-year average.
Refined-product tightness has become a key driver of crude prices, even when headline crude supply remains adequate. However, oil continues to leave the Gulf through Hormuz and alternative routes. West Asian crude shipments are running at about 11 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 18 million before the Iran conflict, helping explain why Brent has stayed below $100 despite severe disruption.
Goldman's cautious year-end view
Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 forecasts by $5 a barrel to $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI, reflecting expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions could persist. Yet the bank's Brent forecast remains well below current prices near $97. Goldman's more cautious outlook reflects the fact that substantial Gulf crude is still reaching the market, alternative export routes remain available, and higher non-OPEC supply could offset part of the disruption.
Elevated prices could also begin to weigh on demand if the conflict drags on. This creates a clear tension in the outlook: Hormuz disruption and geopolitical risk are keeping Brent supported in the short term, but Goldman still expects some of that premium to fade by December.
For context, Brent crude recently hit $97.93 as US-Iran strikes threatened Gulf supply. Meanwhile, Hormuz shipping data signals tighter supply, and strong US payrolls have pressured gold, but oil remains focused on geopolitical risks.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
