Cardano (ADA) has declined approximately 11% over the past week, trading near $0.160 as of Monday. Despite the price weakness, on-chain data reveals that certain large holders have been actively accumulating tokens, adding roughly 370 million ADA since mid-June.
Whale Accumulation Highlights Divergent Behavior
According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA increased their positions significantly during the sell-off. In contrast, mid-sized holders—those with 100,000 to 10 million ADA—reduced their holdings by a combined 10 million tokens over the same period. This divergence suggests that the largest investors are treating the dip as a buying opportunity, while smaller whales are paring exposure.
However, this accumulation has not been sufficient to reverse the broader downtrend. The market remains under pressure, and the buying activity from top-tier wallets has yet to translate into a sustained price recovery.
Derivatives Market Reflects Trader Indecision
Derivatives indicators paint a mixed picture. Cardano's long-to-short ratio, tracked by CoinGlass, stands at 0.65—near its lowest level in over a month. A reading below 1 typically signals bearish sentiment, with more traders positioned for further declines.
Yet funding rate data tells a slightly different story. The open interest-weighted funding rate has turned marginally positive at 0.0050%, indicating that long positions are beginning to pay shorts. This is often interpreted as a mild bullish bias. Together, these metrics suggest a divided market where neither bulls nor bears have gained clear control.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Structure Remains Intact
On the 4-hour chart, ADA continues to trade below key moving averages, confirming a bearish structure. The token is currently below the 50-day EMA ($0.204), 100-day EMA ($0.236), and 200-day EMA ($0.311).
Momentum indicators show early signs of stabilization but not reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 41, indicating weak bearish momentum without reaching oversold territory. The MACD shows mild improvement, suggesting that downside pressure may be easing rather than accelerating.
If a recovery materializes, immediate resistance lies near $0.181, followed by a stronger barrier at $0.202–$0.204, where the 50-day EMA resides. Additional resistance is stacked in the $0.230–$0.240 range. On the downside, key support sits at $0.148. A breakdown below this level could open the door to further declines if selling pressure intensifies.
Market Context and Related Coverage
Cardano's recent price action reflects broader uncertainty in the crypto market. For more on similar trends, see our coverage of Cardano Bearish Pressure Intensifies as Derivatives and On-Chain Data Weaken and Cardano Stalls Below $0.170 as Weak Derivatives Signal Limited Upside.
For now, ADA remains caught between whale accumulation signals and a still-dominant bearish market structure, leaving its near-term direction uncertain.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
