Bitcoin SV (BSV) is trading around $15.00 on Friday, up nearly 2% on the day, as the token continues its two-week recovery. However, the price is facing stiff resistance at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $15.39, and the question on traders' minds is whether this breakout attempt is already turning into a trap.
Retail interest picks up amid security concerns
The recent uptick in BSV retail activity comes as the broader Bitcoin ecosystem grapples with security vulnerabilities. Reports of a Coldcard wallet hack and the identification of roughly 8,000 potential issues by the volunteer group Bitcoin Red Team—using the Kimi K3 AI model—have drawn renewed attention to the security of Bitcoin infrastructure. This has led some investors to explore alternative tools, including PiWalletSV, an air-gapped wallet designed for Bitcoin SV users that keeps private keys offline.
While such developments can spark short-term interest, wallet security alone may not sustain a lasting recovery without broader ecosystem growth and sustained trading demand.
Derivatives data shows growing bullish positioning
According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin SV futures open interest has climbed to $39.07 million, up from $31.87 million on August 1—a rise of more than 22.5%. This increase indicates that traders are building new positions rather than exiting the market. Rising open interest alongside price gains typically supports a bullish interpretation, as fresh capital enters the derivatives market.
Additionally, the funding rate remains positive at 0.0051%, meaning long-position holders are paying shorts. A stable positive funding rate reflects continued demand for bullish positions without signaling excessive leverage. If both open interest and funding remain constructive, BSV could maintain its upward momentum.
Technical outlook: testing the 200-day EMA
On the daily chart, BSV is holding above the 50-day EMA at $13.57 and is now testing the 200-day EMA at $15.39—a key long-term moving average that often separates bullish and bearish market structures. A daily close above this level would be a significant technical development, potentially opening the path toward the next resistance at $17.06, marked by the December 28 low.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and its signal line are rising in positive territory, indicating strengthening upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, above the neutral 50 level but not yet overbought, suggesting room for further upside.
However, if BSV fails to overcome the 200-day EMA, the 50-day EMA at $13.57 provides the first significant support. A pullback to that level would leave the broader recovery structure intact as long as buyers defend the moving average. A daily close below $13.57 would weaken the bullish outlook and could put pressure on the June 25 support at $10.69.
For now, increasing derivatives activity and improving momentum favor buyers. Still, BSV must secure a clear close above $15.39 to confirm its recovery and target the next major resistance at $17.06. Similar breakout dynamics are being watched in other assets, such as BNB's derivatives-driven rally and XRP's ETF-fueled momentum.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
