Bitcoin (BTC) is holding just below the $80,000 mark on Monday, following a retreat from last week's highs above $82,000. The cryptocurrency has shown resilience despite a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, rising Treasury yields, and renewed concerns over interest rates, with continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs providing support.
Price action and resistance
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands at approximately $79,105. Last week, the August jobs report showed employers added 162,000 jobs, well above the 55,000 expected, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. That data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates at its September 16 meeting, with CME's FedWatch tool implying around a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point hike.
Higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on Bitcoin and other rate-sensitive assets following the report. However, LMAX Group Market Strategist Joel Kruger noted in a Block report that Bitcoin has shown "exceptional resilience" despite several potential catalysts for a correction. He also pointed to higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, but said crypto had absorbed those headwinds without significant technical damage.
QCP Capital identified $80,000 to $82,000 as a local resistance zone, with support around $77,000 to $78,000.
ETF inflows continue
Investor demand for Bitcoin remains firm despite uncertainty around the Fed's policy outlook. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $987 million in inflows last week, extending their positive streak to three consecutive weeks. QCP Capital noted that daily volatility in ETF flows appeared more consistent with traders adjusting positions and waiting for greater clarity from upcoming economic data than with strong directional positioning.
On-chain indicators also provide a constructive signal. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin's 30-day change in realized capitalization turned positive on August 24 after 87 days in negative territory. By September 6, the measure had risen to 0.88%, while realized capitalization increased by $9.36 billion over 30 days to $1.068 trillion. Adler said the increase suggested Bitcoin was changing hands at higher prices and supported the recovery as the cryptocurrency held near $80,000.
Inflation data in focus
The market's attention now turns to U.S. producer price data due Thursday and August consumer price inflation data scheduled for Friday. These figures will provide key signals ahead of the Fed's September 16 policy meeting. Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda expects headline CPI to remain at 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is forecast to decline to 2.4%. A softer core reading could support the case for keeping rates unchanged, while stronger-than-expected inflation could revive rate-hike expectations.
CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill said in a Cointelegraph report that Bitcoin is "trading like gold again, but the Fed still sets the ceiling" around $80,000. He argued that recent fund-flow movements reflected investors responding to changes in the interest-rate path rather than abandoning crypto.
Liquidity conditions have also remained relevant. The U.S. Treasury's decision to double certain long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation coincided with Bitcoin's rise from the low $60,000s to above $80,000 in August. The expanded buyback program is scheduled to run from September 9 through November 4. Against this backdrop, Standard Chartered has forecast that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before the end of the year.
For more on related crypto movements, see Solana's ETF-driven rally and why Bitcoin remains capped despite record ETF inflows.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
