The broader cryptocurrency selloff continued this week, with XRP dropping to approximately $1.11 on Friday—its lowest level since February 6. The token has now declined for six consecutive sessions, reflecting persistent weakness across digital assets amid heightened geopolitical tensions and deteriorating investor sentiment.
ETF inflows resume, but price action diverges
Institutional flows into XRP investment products turned positive on Thursday, with roughly $4 million in net inflows recorded. This followed $5 million in outflows the previous day, which had been the first negative flow since April 30. Despite the recent price decline, cumulative inflows into XRP ETFs stand at $1.5 billion, with assets under management exceeding $1 billion.
The divergence between institutional flows and spot price action suggests that while long-term investors remain constructive on XRP, short-term market dynamics—including risk-off sentiment and macro uncertainty—are currently overriding the positive signal from ETF data. As noted in our earlier coverage of XRP Gains 2% Amid ETF Inflows and Rising Derivatives Activity, such inflows have historically preceded price recoveries, but the current environment may delay that effect.
Macro headwinds and extreme fear dominate
Market participants continue to reduce exposure to risk assets as geopolitical tensions—particularly between the United States and Iran—fuel uncertainty across global markets. Investors are rotating capital away from volatile cryptocurrencies toward safer instruments such as bonds, gold, and cash equivalents. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 17, indicating “Extreme Fear,” down sharply from 50 in May.
This cautious positioning is also evident in other major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin briefly touched $61,100, while Ethereum risks dropping below $1,500 in the near term. The broader market weakness has overshadowed positive developments in XRP-specific fundamentals, including the recent regulatory clarity that had previously supported prices—as highlighted in XRP Surges to $1.42 on Strong ETF Inflows and Regulatory Clarity.
Technical outlook: oversold but no reversal yet
On the 4-hour chart, XRP continues to trade below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), maintaining a clearly bearish structure. The SuperTrend resistance sits at $1.34, capping any near-term recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 30, officially entering oversold territory, while the MACD histogram remains negative, confirming ongoing downward momentum.
While oversold conditions may slow the pace of decline, they have not yet triggered a meaningful reversal. If market conditions improve, the first major resistance is at $1.34, which coincides with the Transactional Liquidity (TLQ) level on the 4-hour chart. A daily close above that could open the path toward $1.36 (50-day EMA), $1.44 (100-day EMA), and $1.64 (200-day EMA). A sustained recovery above these levels would be required to shift the broader bearish outlook.
Key support and downside risks
XRP is approaching the critical $1.0 psychological support level. A decisive break below this level could accelerate downside pressure, potentially driving the token toward lower demand zones. The current price action mirrors patterns seen in other altcoins, such as Solana Consolidates Near $84 as ETF Inflows Slow and Network Activity Declines, where institutional inflows have failed to stem broader market declines.
For XRP to stage a sustained recovery, the market would need to see a stabilization in macro conditions and a return of risk appetite. Until then, the divergence between positive institutional flows and falling spot prices is likely to persist, underscoring the dominance of macro factors over token-specific fundamentals in the current environment.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
