SpaceX (SPCX) continued its post-IPO surge on Monday, with shares climbing 8% to $173.67 in early trading. The rally follows a blockbuster first day on the Nasdaq on Friday, when the stock jumped 19% from its $135 IPO price. The broader market also gained, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5% amid optimism over a potential resolution to the Iran conflict.
Nasdaq-100 Inclusion in Sight
A key catalyst for Monday's move is growing speculation that SpaceX could soon join the Nasdaq-100 index. Inclusion would make the stock a mandatory holding for exchange-traded funds and other passive investment vehicles that track the benchmark. Analysts estimate that such a move could trigger between $7 billion and $10 billion in passive inflows as index funds and ETFs rebalance their portfolios. While newly public companies typically must wait at least 12 months before being considered for S&P Dow Jones Indices indexes, the Nasdaq-100 has its own criteria, and investors are betting on an accelerated timeline given SpaceX's massive market capitalization.
IPO Momentum Continues
The strong follow-through came after underwriters exercised their overallotment option, increasing the total IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion—the largest on record. Trading volume remained heavy, with over 500 million shares changing hands on the first day. The rally is part of a broader rotation into high-growth technology and artificial intelligence stocks. Memory-chip maker Micron Technology outperformed SpaceX in early trading, while Seagate Technology and Western Digital each gained more than 5%. Nvidia also rose about 2%.
Musk Sets Ambitious Revenue Target
Investor enthusiasm was further stoked by comments from Elon Musk over the weekend. Responding to a social media post referencing a Morgan Stanley revenue forecast, Musk suggested that SpaceX revenue could exceed $1 trillion by 2030. That target would be more than three times higher than Morgan Stanley's projection and represent a roughly 66-fold increase from the company's 2025 revenue level. A major component of that growth strategy is expected to come from artificial intelligence infrastructure. SpaceX plans to begin deploying orbital AI data centers in 2028. Its terrestrial data-center operations, previously owned by xAI before merging with SpaceX in February, currently rent computing capacity to customers including Anthropic and Google.
ARK Invest Builds Large Position
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest emerged as one of the most notable buyers following the listing. The firm purchased nearly 3.3 million SpaceX shares during the first trading session, building a position valued at more than $500 million by the close. The ARK Innovation ETF accounted for most of the purchases, with SpaceX representing 3.28% of its portfolio by the end of the day.
Valuation Debate Intensifies
Despite the strong start, not all analysts are convinced the rally is sustainable. CFRA initiated coverage on Friday with a Sell rating and a 12-month price target of $115, implying significant downside from current levels. The research firm cited the company's aggressive growth plans, elevated valuation expectations, and substantial capital requirements. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens also expressed caution in a June 8 note, valuing SpaceX at $63 per share and describing the stock as overvalued. Even as skeptics question the valuation, investors appear focused on the company's long-term ambitions in launch services, satellite communications, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and future orbital computing networks.
For more on the dynamics driving SpaceX's stock, see our analysis on SpaceX Short Interest Surges to 29% of Float: Is a Meme Stock Squeeze Brewing? and SpaceX Stock Slips 2% as Lockup, Short Interest Weigh on Sentiment.
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