SpaceX shares extended their post-IPO rally in premarket trading Monday, climbing approximately 6.7% to surpass $170, as investor speculation intensifies over the company's imminent inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index. The move follows a blockbuster debut on Friday that saw the stock surge 19% from its $135 IPO price, pushing the Elon Musk-led company's market capitalization above $2 trillion.
Retail investors played a pivotal role in the strong opening session. According to Vanda Research, individual investors purchased a record $117.6 million worth of SpaceX shares on Friday, making it the most-bought stock of the session and surpassing the previous IPO debut record set by Coinbase in April 2021. Retail investors were allocated roughly 20% of the IPO, an unusually large share compared with many high-profile public offerings, underscoring the pent-up demand for direct exposure to Musk's rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence businesses.
Index Inclusion Could Unlock Billions
Market participants are now focused on SpaceX's expected addition to the Nasdaq-100, which could trigger significant passive fund inflows. Analysts estimate that inclusion in the benchmark could generate between $7 billion and $10 billion in buying from exchange-traded funds and other passive investment vehicles that track the index. Nasdaq will adjust the stock's weighting based on its public float, effectively treating SpaceX more like a company valued at roughly $225 billion rather than its full $2 trillion market cap.
Additional demand may materialize later this month when index providers FTSE Russell and MSCI add the stock to their benchmarks on June 26 and June 29, respectively. For context on broader market dynamics, see our coverage of Nasdaq Futures Jump 150 Points as PayPal Takeover Bid and ASML Outlook Lift Sentiment.
Musk's Ambitious Revenue Targets
The strong start came as Elon Musk doubled down on SpaceX's long-term growth narrative. On Sunday, the billionaire entrepreneur stated that SpaceX could generate as much as $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a target that far exceeds Wall Street's existing projections. Goldman Sachs has estimated SpaceX's revenue could exceed $470 billion by 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected nearly $330 billion, according to a Wall Street Journal report. SpaceX reported revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025.
Volatility Risks Remain Elevated
Despite the enthusiasm, analysts caution that investors should brace for significant volatility during the stock's early months as a public company. SpaceX has a relatively small public float compared with its overall valuation, a factor that can amplify price swings when trading volumes surge. For a deeper look at short interest dynamics, see SpaceX Short Interest Surges to 29% of Float: Is a Meme Stock Squeeze Brewing?.
SpaceX stock also benefited from a broader market tailwind after reports of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending a conflict that has lasted more than three months and reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of easing geopolitical tensions lifted risk appetite across markets, with S&P 500 futures rising 1.3%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining about 1%, and Nasdaq futures advancing more than 2%.
"If the overnight news of a deal between the US and Iran proves to be credible and lasting, this should be taken as a positive, whereas setbacks will likely be taken as less of a negative by risk assets," said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Global Investment Research.
With strong retail demand, potential index-driven inflows, and Musk's ambitious growth projections, SpaceX begins its life as a public company under intense investor scrutiny. However, questions remain over whether its lofty valuation can be sustained amid the inherent volatility of a newly listed stock with a limited float. For more on post-IPO performance, see SpaceX Stock Dips Below $135 IPO Price Amid Post-Listing Volatility.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
