SpaceX (SPCX) shares surged approximately 11% to $126.82 in early trading Friday, putting the stock on track to break a four-week losing streak. The rally followed the company's stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings, which prompted analysts to raise their revenue projections and price targets.
Despite the weekly rebound, SpaceX shares remain significantly below their post-listing highs. The broader market also advanced after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 67 points, or 0.1%. Major indexes were headed for a second consecutive weekly gain, with the S&P 500 up more than 3% for the week and the Nasdaq on pace for its strongest weekly performance since April, buoyed by a rebound in semiconductor stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF gained over 7% during the week.
Earnings beat boosts sentiment
Friday's advance left SpaceX shares up roughly 15% for the week after the company reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion and EBITDA of $3.5 billion, surpassing Wall Street expectations of $6.8 billion in revenue and $2.1 billion in EBITDA. Following the release, analysts raised their long-term forecasts. According to FactSet, consensus estimates for 2027 revenue have increased to about $102 billion from roughly $72 billion at the end of July.
The earnings report also prompted several analysts to revise their outlooks. Bernstein SocGen Group raised its price target on SpaceX to $248 from $239, maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm attributed the higher target to increased revenue assumptions and improved pricing expectations for the company's AI computing business. Bernstein noted that SpaceX has accelerated its target to reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, one year earlier than previously projected. The revised outlook is driven primarily by stronger pricing for compute services and a more aggressive terrestrial AI expansion, rather than higher launch activity for planned orbital data centres. The firm also said SpaceX has finalized the design of its orbital data centres and intends to monetize terrestrial AI capacity at between $30 and $50 per watt.
Lock-up expiration expands trading float
Thursday marked the first major expiration of SpaceX's post-IPO lock-up restrictions, allowing rank-and-file employees and some early investors to sell up to 911.5 million shares. The newly eligible shares more than doubled the company's public float, adding to the roughly 639 million shares previously available for public trading. Additional lock-up restrictions are scheduled to expire over the coming months, increasing the proportion of potentially tradable shares to about 40% of the company by December 8. The remaining 60%, including Musk's stake, will remain locked until mid-2027.
The lock-up expiration comes after a sharp post-earnings decline, when investors reacted to elevated AI spending and continuing operating losses. Although SpaceX has underperformed the broader technology sector since its June listing, analysts continue to maintain a constructive long-term outlook as the company expands its AI computing and satellite businesses. For more context on the lock-up expiry, see SpaceX's first lockup expiry unlocks 911.5M shares.
Investors have also been monitoring the company's AI chip partnerships, as Nvidia jumped 4.6% after SpaceX picked its AI chips, while AMD slid. The broader market digest, including Alphabet's AI reshuffle and gold's surge, has also influenced sentiment.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
