Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues its downward trajectory, trading near $0.00000450 on Wednesday and marking a seventh consecutive session of losses. The meme coin has shed approximately 23% from its August peak of $0.00000583, and it now sits nearly 34% below the June high of $0.00000671, underscoring the depth of its broader correction.
Despite the persistent decline, derivatives activity has picked up, indicating that speculative interest remains. Open interest in SHIB perpetual futures stands at $50.35 million, down 2% in the last 24 hours but still about 81% above the July low of $27.8 million. This rise in open interest suggests traders are committing more capital, though it does not clarify whether the new positions are predominantly long or short.
When open interest climbs while the underlying asset falls, it can amplify volatility and increase the risk of leveraged liquidations. The funding rate, which reflects the cost of holding long positions, has eased to 0.003% from 0.0082% on Tuesday. A positive funding rate indicates that longs are paying shorts, but the decline suggests that bullish demand may be waning.
If long interest resumes and is supported by stronger spot-market buying, it could help SHIB absorb some selling pressure. However, growing long exposure during a downtrend also raises the possibility of a long squeeze, where further price drops force leveraged bulls to unwind, intensifying the sell-off.
Trading volume has also contracted. After reaching $50.2 million on Tuesday, volume has fallen by nearly 17% to $41.21 million. This is a far cry from the $859.5 million recorded on July 27, which was the highest since June 2025. The subdued volume points to limited market participation, and without a significant pickup in spot buying, futures activity alone may not be enough to fuel a durable recovery.
Technical outlook: downtrend intact
From a technical perspective, SHIB remains under pressure. It trades below its descending 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), a structure that signals sellers are in control across multiple time frames. Reclaiming these averages would be necessary to alleviate the bearish bias.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 40, below the neutral 50 mark but still above the oversold threshold of 30. This indicates weakening momentum while leaving room for further downside before the token becomes technically oversold. An oversold reading could attract dip buyers, but it does not guarantee a reversal.
Immediate resistance sits at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.00000462, closely followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.00000465. A daily close above this cluster could reduce short-term selling pressure and open the door to the 100-day EMA at $0.00000495. On the downside, $0.00000450 serves as the immediate pivot and the 100% Fibonacci retracement. A decisive break below that level could extend losses toward the next support at $0.00000405.
Until SHIB reclaims its key moving averages on stronger volume, any rebound is likely to remain corrective within the broader downtrend. For context, other assets have faced similar technical hurdles, as seen in Pi Network's recent slide and Micron's margin struggles. The market's focus remains on whether buyers can step in with conviction.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
