Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) shares have climbed roughly 40% from their recent low, buoyed by a string of contract wins and a record backlog. The stock now trades near $82, up from a $58.25 trough, as investors bet on the company's expanding role in space infrastructure.
Viasat deal and backlog growth
The latest catalyst came from a new agreement with Viasat, a major satellite communications provider. Rocket Lab will supply a GEO-configured version of its Lightning spacecraft platform to host Viasat's dual-band X/Ka-band payload for a U.S. Space Force program. CEO Peter Beck called the move from design to production "an important milestone" for the company's national security work.
Rocket Lab's order book has swelled to $2.34 billion, up from $2 billion in the first quarter. The company has also secured contracts with MDA Space, Kepler Communications, iQPS, and the Space Force. Revenue jumped 62% year over year to $234 million in Q2, with commercial clients accounting for 51% of contracts.
Vertical integration strategy
Management is pushing a vertical integration model to drive future growth. The recent $8 billion acquisition of Iridium, along with purchases of Mynaric and Motiv, expands capabilities in laser communications and robotic systems. Analysts expect revenue to reach $230 million in the upcoming quarter, up 60% from a year earlier, and $952 million for the full year.
Chart pattern: double-bottom vs. head-and-shoulders
On the daily chart, RKLB has formed a double-bottom pattern at $58.25, with a neckline at the all-time high of $151. This bullish setup suggests the stock could eventually retest those highs. However, a closer look reveals a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder at $99.77. To confirm the bullish case, the stock must break above that resistance level. A move below $60 would invalidate the pattern and signal further downside.
Investors should also keep an eye on broader market conditions. Recent volatility in Nasdaq futures and rising Treasury yields could weigh on high-growth names like Rocket Lab. Meanwhile, the company's fundamentals remain strong, but the stock's valuation already reflects much of the optimism.
For context, other aerospace names have shown similar patterns. Rolls-Royce stock has also faced valuation concerns despite bullish chart setups. And in the broader tech sector, AMD's bullish flag pattern has been tempered by rich valuations.
Rocket Lab's next earnings report will be crucial. If the company beats expectations and raises guidance, the stock could break through resistance. Otherwise, the head-and-shoulders pattern may take precedence, leading to a pullback.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
