Nvidia is set to report fiscal second-quarter results after Wednesday's market close, with Wall Street anticipating another record quarter. The central question is whether the chipmaker can exceed not only the consensus but also the more aggressive forecasts from several bullish analysts.
FactSet's consensus stands at roughly $92.3 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $2.09 per share. However, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh projects revenue of $97.8 billion, nearly $6 billion above the average estimate, and maintains a $330 price target, implying about 55% upside from Tuesday's close.
KeyBanc's bullish case
Vinh raised his revenue estimate from $93.1 billion, citing strong demand and accelerating shipments of Rubin-generation GPUs. He expects fiscal third-quarter revenue to reach $110 billion, compared with consensus near $104.2 billion. KeyBanc now models 1.9 million to 2 million Rubin processors this year, up from 1.75 million, helped by improved HBM4 supply from SK Hynix. The firm also expects 5,000 to 6,000 Vera Rubin racks in 2025.
“We expect NVDA to report strong results and guidance,” Vinh told investors, according to TipRanks. He sees Rubin shipments as a key driver of upside, making the bull case less dependent on Blackwell alone.
Other analysts echo optimism
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri expects July-quarter revenue of $94 billion to $95 billion, several billion above consensus, and believes October-quarter revenue can reach $110 billion or more as Blackwell demand remains robust and Rubin begins contributing. “The numbers are more important than the narrative,” Arcuri said, maintaining a Buy rating and $280 target.
Jefferies' Blayne Curtis also anticipates a “beat and raise” quarter, citing “rock-solid” demand indicators, including accelerating cloud revenue at Microsoft and Amazon, OpenAI's long-duration compute requirements, and other AI infrastructure commitments.
Market expectations and risks
The debate extends beyond whether Nvidia beats the $92 billion consensus. The more consequential issue is whether management guides toward the $110 billion quarterly revenue level that KeyBanc and UBS already foresee. If so, Wall Street may need another round of estimate upgrades.
However, Jefferies warns that the potential earnings upside “seems well understood,” a caution given Nvidia's recent history. Shares have fallen after each of the previous four earnings releases despite beats. Investors may judge Wednesday's report less on the headline beat and more on the magnitude, guidance, and CEO Jensen Huang's comments on competition.
JPMorgan's Harlan Sur told MarketWatch that the earnings call could be as important as the numbers, with attention on custom AI silicon, emerging competitors, and Nvidia's full-stack advantage. China and HBM supply will also be watched.
Options traders are pricing an implied post-earnings move of only about 5.4%, the smallest expected reaction since 2021, according to data cited in the original report. That suggests the market may be bracing for a more muted response, even if the results are strong.
For broader context, see how Nvidia's recent rebound and options activity have shaped expectations. Also, Intel and AMD rallied ahead of the report, and the Dow climbed as AI chip sentiment built.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
