Nio's stock has tumbled to its lowest point since April last year, extending a sharp decline that has erased more than half of its value from the 2025 peak. The latest trigger was the company's October delivery report, which showed a year-over-year decline and reinforced concerns about slowing demand in China's increasingly crowded electric vehicle market.
The Chinese EV maker delivered 34,246 vehicles in October, down from the same period last year. The bulk of those deliveries came from its core Nio brand, while its newer Onvo and Firefly sub-brands contributed 8,383 and 7,738 units, respectively. The October figures follow a September report that showed deliveries rose just 7.75% year over year, and third-quarter deliveries of 109,178 vehicles, up 25.4%.
That deceleration is happening against a backdrop of intensifying competition and a broader slowdown in China's passenger car market. AlixPartners projects that passenger vehicle sales in China will fall to 18 million units this year, the weakest performance since 2014. Domestic rivals such as XPeng, Li Auto, Polestar, and BYD are all vying for market share, and the resulting price war is squeezing margins across the industry.
BYD, China's largest EV maker, reported a 14% rise in quarterly revenue to 221.49 billion yuan, with net profit jumping to 10.02 billion yuan from 7.82 billion a year earlier. However, that growth was below expectations and was driven largely by international sales, which now account for 40% of its total, rather than by domestic demand. The competitive pressure in China has forced many manufacturers to cut prices, eroding profitability.
Investors are now looking ahead to Nio's third-quarter earnings, due later this month. Analysts expect revenue to rise 52% year over year to 33.16 billion yuan, supported by the strong delivery numbers during the quarter. For the fourth quarter, the consensus estimate is 34.83 billion yuan, roughly flat compared with the same period last year.
To sustain growth, Nio may need to expand beyond China, particularly into Europe, where BYD is preparing to open a plant in Hungary to serve European customers. Nio has already entered several European markets, but its presence remains limited compared with local and other Chinese competitors.
From a technical perspective, the stock remains under pressure. It has stayed below all major moving averages and the Supertrend indicator, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 34.60, approaching oversold territory but still pointing lower. Analysts see the next support level at the psychological $3 mark, which could be tested if selling pressure continues.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
