Bitcoin (BTC) has moved back above the $78,200 mark on Monday, staging a tentative recovery after a challenging October that saw four consecutive weeks of declines. The rebound follows a sharp selloff triggered by the recent Binance hack, which briefly pushed the cryptocurrency down to $76,100 before buyers stepped in.
Recovery Faces Technical Hurdles
Despite the bounce, Bitcoin's technical picture remains cautious. The leading digital asset is trading below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $80,307, a level that now serves as immediate resistance. A sustained daily close above this threshold would signal strengthening bullish momentum and could open the path toward the $85,000 zone, where sellers previously emerged.
On the downside, Bitcoin is finding support from its 100-day EMA at $77,831 and the 200-day EMA at $76,471. These longer-term averages have held so far, suggesting the broader uptrend is not entirely broken. However, the inability to reclaim the 50-day EMA indicates that sellers still exert short-term control.
Momentum Indicators Reflect Uncertainty
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40, below the neutral 50 level, pointing to lingering bearish pressure. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, confirming that buying interest has yet to decisively outweigh selling.
Market participants are closely watching whether Bitcoin can break above $80,307. A failure to do so could lead to renewed selling, with the first downside target at the 100-day EMA around $77,831. A decisive break below that would increase the risk of a retest of the 200-day EMA at $76,471, and a daily close beneath that level would weaken the technical structure further.
Impact of the Binance Hack
The primary catalyst for last week's selloff was the hack of Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. The exchange lost approximately $6.4 billion in the attack, though it managed to freeze a portion of the stolen assets with assistance from Tether and Circle. The incident rattled investor confidence, leading to significant outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $643 million in net outflows on Friday, the first trading session after the hack.
According to Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz, the market's expectations for Bitcoin's year-end price have shifted. Options data now shows only a 3.5% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by Christmas, down from 6% last Wednesday. The chance of reaching $90,000 by December 25 has fallen to 14%, while the odds of staying above $80,000 stand at 44%.
Range-Bound Trading Likely
For now, Bitcoin appears poised to trade within a range defined by its short-term resistance at $80,307 and longer-term support near $76,471. A decisive breakout in either direction would establish a clearer trend, but until then, the market may remain choppy as investors weigh the impact of the hack and broader macroeconomic factors.
Traditional markets are also in focus, with upcoming tech earnings and Federal Reserve guidance likely to influence risk appetite. The crypto market's recovery will depend on whether Bitcoin can reclaim key technical levels and restore confidence among institutional investors.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
