U.S. equity futures pointed to a steadier open on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 leading gains as oil prices cooled from a sharp spike triggered by renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. The move suggests investors are cautiously returning to risk assets after Wednesday's selloff, though geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainties remain in focus.
Futures Signal Mixed Start
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while Dow futures edged down 0.10%. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, climbing 0.61%—equivalent to roughly 190 points—as semiconductor stocks rallied in premarket trading. The gains follow a mixed session on Wednesday, when the S&P 500 and Dow closed lower but the Nasdaq managed a small advance.
Investors appear willing to buy dips in growth shares, but conviction remains tempered by headline risk from the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.
Oil Eases After Iran-Driven Surge
Crude oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday, pulling back from two-week highs reached after former President Trump declared the interim Iran ceasefire “over.” The retreat helped calm equity markets after Brent and WTI had jumped on fears of renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.
Strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management noted that while the path to a lasting agreement remains uneven, both sides have incentives to keep the strait open. Still, they warned that occasional flare-ups are likely to drive volatility in energy markets.
For context on how oil price swings are affecting currency markets, see our analysis: USD/ZAR Falling Wedge Signals Potential Rand Pullback Amid Oil Price Surge.
Fed Minutes Keep Rate Hike Risk Alive
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June meeting, but the minutes revealed that a few policymakers saw a case for raising borrowing costs. This matters because an oil-led inflation shock could make the central bank less willing to ease its stance.
Markets are now pricing in at least one rate increase by year-end, according to LSEG data. Fed officials may maintain a hawkish tone until they are confident that energy shocks are not feeding broader price pressures.
The interplay between oil and rate expectations is also weighing on other assets, as discussed in Bitcoin Stalls Near $62K as Oil Surge, Fed Caution, and Strategy Sales Weigh.
Jobless Claims Data on Tap
Weekly initial jobless claims, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, will provide the next snapshot of labor market conditions. New York Fed President John Williams is also scheduled to speak later in the day. While the data may not dominate trading unless it surprises, it adds to the mix of growth and inflation signals investors are weighing.
Chip Stocks Lead Rebound
The firmer tone in futures was bolstered by a rebound in semiconductor stocks after two sessions of heavy selling. Micron rose 3.5% in premarket trading, while AMD and Intel gained more than 2.5%, as investors returned to the AI hardware trade.
The bounce follows a global chip selloff, but Wall Street analysts have largely maintained bullish views. Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating on Micron, UBS raised its DRAM price forecasts, Goldman Sachs increased its AMD price target, and HSBC doubled its Intel target. These moves helped restore confidence that the AI memory cycle remains intact, even if valuations are stretched.
For more on the AI chip landscape, see AI Chip Titans ASML and TSMC Face Earnings Test After 110%-172% Surge.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
