Monero (XMR) extended its upward move on Thursday, trading above the $400 mark after buyers defended a key support zone in the prior session. The cryptocurrency's technical and derivatives indicators are aligning in favor of further gains, with the next major hurdle identified at $416.45.
Derivatives data turns increasingly bullish
Data from CoinGlass reveals growing optimism among Monero derivatives traders. The long-to-short ratio climbed to 1.3635 on Thursday, the highest reading in over a month. A ratio above 1 indicates that long positions outnumber shorts, suggesting that more traders expect the price to rise.
While this elevated ratio reflects bullish positioning, it also raises the risk of a long squeeze if the price reverses sharply, as highly leveraged traders may be forced to unwind their positions.
Open Interest in Monero futures has been rising steadily since the start of August, reaching $182.59 million on Thursday. The combination of rising prices and increasing open interest typically signals that new money is entering the market, supporting the prevailing trend. This suggests the rally is driven by fresh long positions rather than short covering alone.
Continued growth in open interest could fuel another leg higher. However, a sudden decline would indicate that traders are closing positions, which could weaken momentum.
Funding rates turned positive on August 7 and have since risen to 0.010% on Thursday. Positive funding means long position holders are paying shorts, reflecting stronger demand for bullish exposure in the perpetual futures market. The combination of a rising long-to-short ratio, increasing open interest, and positive funding paints a constructive derivatives picture for XMR.
Still, persistently high funding could signal an overcrowded long trade, leaving Monero vulnerable to a sharp pullback if the market turns.
Technical structure remains constructive
On the daily chart, XMR/USD is trading around $405, comfortably above its major exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 50-day EMA sits at $356.17, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs are at $353.92 and $356.97, respectively. These three averages form a dense support zone between roughly $354 and $357.
Monero also remains above a rising trendline near $354.18 and intermediate horizontal support at $375.20. Holding these levels keeps the short-term technical outlook tilted to the upside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the mid-60s, indicating strong buying momentum without being overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also positive, with the MACD line above zero and recent histogram expansion suggesting strengthening upward momentum.
However, the RSI's proximity to overbought territory means traders should watch for signs of exhaustion as XMR approaches resistance.
Key levels to watch
The next significant resistance is at $416.45. A decisive daily close above this level could confirm a continuation of the uptrend and open the door for a fresh rally, provided XMR stays above its moving averages and the rising trendline.
On the downside, $375.20 is the first key support. A pullback toward this level could attract buyers looking to enter the prevailing uptrend. If sellers push the price below $375.20, attention would shift to the support cluster between $353.92 and $356.97, reinforced by the rising trendline near $354.18.
A daily close below the EMA cluster would indicate weakening bullish control and could expose the deeper horizontal support at $285.11.
For now, Monero's price structure and derivatives indicators favor buyers, with $416.45 emerging as the next major test. For broader context on crypto market trends, see Solana's recent recovery and TRON's stablecoin activity.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
