Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) shares climbed another 6% on Thursday, reaching $966.01, extending a rebound that began earlier this week. The stock had already gained roughly 5% on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive session of gains. Despite the recent recovery, shares remain about 20% below their late-June peak, though they are still up more than 200% year-to-date.
The latest rally is fueled by renewed optimism around artificial intelligence spending and memory chip demand. Strong results from AI infrastructure players such as Super Micro Computer, Nebius, and CoreWeave have reinforced expectations that memory chips will remain in high demand. Analysts remain largely bullish on Micron, with the average price target implying more than 65% upside from current levels. Tight memory supply through 2027 is a key factor underpinning these targets.
However, a new report from Counterpoint Research highlights a growing competitive threat in the NAND memory market. In the second quarter, Micron fell behind several rivals in NAND shipment share. NAND memory is used across a wide range of products, from smartphones to AI data centers, and represents a substantial portion of Micron's revenue.
According to Counterpoint, Samsung maintained its lead with a 25% shipment share, followed by SK Hynix at 22%. Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) ranked third with a 14% share, narrowly ahead of Kioxia, while Micron trailed. YMTC, a Chinese memory maker, has been on the U.S. Commerce Department's Entity List since 2022 and is preparing for an initial public offering in mainland China, though no date has been set.
Despite the shipment share loss, Micron still holds a revenue advantage over YMTC. Counterpoint noted that shipment volume does not directly translate into revenue. YMTC ranked third in shipments but only fifth in revenue, behind Micron and Kioxia, because its product mix is still concentrated in consumer applications with a low share of high-priced data-center enterprise solid-state drives (eSSDs). The research firm added that YMTC plans to shift its mix further toward eSSDs in the second half of the year to solidify its third-place position globally.
For Micron investors, the next major catalyst is the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, expected in late September. Wall Street forecasts earnings per share of $31.15, sharply above the $3.03 reported a year earlier. Revenue is projected to reach $50.43 billion, representing more than 300% year-over-year growth. Management has also highlighted strong demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stating that HBM orders are largely booked through 2027.
The strong demand outlook gives Micron significant exposure to continued AI spending, but the stock's massive year-to-date gain leaves little room for error. Memory prices can shift quickly if supply increases or demand weakens, and the emergence of YMTC as a potential competitor adds another layer of uncertainty. As YMTC overtakes Micron in NAND shipments, investors will be watching how the competitive landscape evolves.
Recent market volatility has also highlighted the cyclical nature of the memory sector. Micron's strong margins have not shielded it from selloffs when cycle fears arise. Similarly, Wall Street remains split on Micron's valuation after the recent pullback, though many analysts still see upside.
As the AI trade continues to drive demand for memory, Micron's ability to execute on its HBM roadmap and manage NAND competition will be critical. The upcoming earnings report will provide a clearer picture of whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
