Ethereum slipped below the $2,200 mark on Friday, extending its recent decline as investors digested persistent US inflation and the fallout from a major security breach at Binance. The cryptocurrency traded around $2,180, down roughly 3% on the day, after September's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index came in line with expectations but still pointed to sticky price pressures.
The PCE index rose 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. Following the release, CME FedWatch data showed an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December meeting. This comes on the heels of the Fed's decision on Wednesday to hold interest rates steady, a move that was not unanimous (10-2 vote). The combination leaves investors facing the prospect of restrictive monetary policy continuing despite the October pause.
Futures Market Shows Persistent Selling Pressure
Data from CryptoQuant indicates continued sell-side pressure in Ethereum's perpetual futures market on Binance. The 30-day moving average of ETH Net Taker Volume, which measures the difference between aggressive buying and selling via market orders, reached a four-month low of approximately negative $166.6 million on October 16. While the figure has improved to negative $117.3 million as of Wednesday, it remains in negative territory, suggesting sellers are still more active than buyers.
Despite this, funding rates have stayed positive, meaning long positions are paying shorts. This indicates demand for leveraged long exposure but does not necessarily signal a long-term bullish outlook. Open interest has hovered around 12.7 million ETH for most of October, following a decline in September, suggesting that outstanding exposure has broadly stabilized in token terms.
ETF Outflows and Liquidations Add Pressure
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $21.4 million on Wednesday and another $105.48 million on Thursday, extending their withdrawal streak to four consecutive sessions. The continued redemptions point to subdued demand for these investment products as Ethereum struggles to recover.
Derivatives traders have also faced substantial forced closures. ETH liquidations totaled $360.5 million over the last 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $305 million—approximately 84.7% of the total. The concentration of losses among bullish positions highlights how the decline caught leveraged traders expecting a rebound.
The bearish trend was exacerbated by the Binance hack, with attackers draining roughly $6 billion from the exchange. This event has rattled crypto markets broadly, contributing to risk-off sentiment.
Technical Levels and Indicators
Ethereum's daily technical structure remains bearish, with the price trading below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 200-day EMA near $2,310 is the first key level buyers need to reclaim. Above that, resistance sits at $2,355 and the 100-day EMA around $2,360. The 20-day EMA at $2,409 and the 50-day EMA near $2,443 present further obstacles to a sustained recovery.
On the downside, immediate support lies around $2,200. This level was briefly broken but price rebounded almost instantly. A daily candle close below that level could bring $2,107 into focus, followed by deeper technical floors at $1,972 and $1,854.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 29, below the conventional oversold threshold of 30, while the Stochastic Oscillator reads 14, also in oversold territory. These readings suggest selling momentum is stretched, but neither confirms that a reversal has begun.
Holding support near $2,205 and reclaiming the 200-day EMA would provide initial evidence of stabilization. Until then, negative futures order flow and persistent ETF withdrawals leave the recovery outlook cautious.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
