Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading in a narrow range near $0.077 after a roughly 4% rebound last week, with on-chain data revealing a divergence between large investors and retail participants. Whale wallets now hold 73.85 billion DOGE following steady accumulation, while derivatives volume has declined by more than 5% in the past 24 hours, signaling cautious retail sentiment.
According to CoinGlass data, DOGE futures Open Interest (OI) has remained flat at around $1 billion, indicating that traders have not aggressively added or reduced positions. The funding rate remains positive at 0.0089%, meaning long-position holders continue to pay a premium to maintain bullish bets. However, the drop in overall derivatives volume suggests that market participation has weakened despite the positive funding environment.
Whale Accumulation Continues
Data from Santiment shows that wallets holding more than 1 billion DOGE collectively increased their holdings from 72.73 billion to 73.85 billion DOGE over the past several days. Although the pace of accumulation has slowed in the last two trading sessions, the increase indicates that major investors still view current price levels as attractive. Whale transaction activity has cooled sharply, falling from 47 transactions on Friday to just 12 on Sunday, reflecting the broader consolidation.
This pattern of large investors building positions while retail activity wanes is reminiscent of similar dynamics seen in other assets. For instance, Bitcoin Surges Past $62K as Whales Accumulate $16.7B Amid Record ETF Outflows highlighted a similar trend in the crypto market. Meanwhile, Cardano Drops 11% as Whales Accumulate 370M ADA Amid Market Uncertainty shows that whale accumulation is not unique to Dogecoin.
On-Chain Profitability Improves
The percentage of Dogecoin's circulating supply held at a profit has risen to 38.51%, up significantly from 23.7% recorded last week. This improvement reflects the recent price recovery and could help strengthen investor confidence if the upward trend continues. The increase in profitable supply suggests that the recent rebound has alleviated some of the pressure on holders who were underwater.
Technical Outlook: $0.077 Resistance Key
From a technical perspective, Dogecoin remains in a recovery phase but has yet to confirm a broader trend reversal. The immediate resistance at $0.077 has capped the latest rebound from approximately $0.070. Beyond that, stronger resistance sits at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.0854, followed by the 200-day EMA around $0.1105. A sustained move above the 50-day EMA would provide stronger confirmation that buyers are regaining control of the longer-term trend.
Momentum indicators present a cautiously constructive picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory following a bullish crossover last week, suggesting buying momentum continues to improve. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 54, indicating that bullish momentum remains relatively weak and that rallies could continue facing resistance until stronger buying activity emerges.
On the downside, initial support is located around $0.070, with stronger support near $0.0642. A break below that lower support zone would increase the risk of a deeper correction and reinforce the broader bearish trend. Dogecoin remains trapped in consolidation following last week's recovery, with weak retail participation limiting upside momentum.
However, continued whale accumulation, positive funding rates, and improving on-chain profitability suggest the broader outlook is gradually becoming more constructive. A decisive break above $0.077 would strengthen the bullish case and could trigger a move toward $0.085, while failure to hold $0.070 would shift attention back to lower support levels.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
