Cardano (ADA) is approaching a pivotal network event as the Van Rossem hard fork is scheduled for July 18, 2026, at 21:44:51 UTC. This upgrade, ratified on July 13, has drawn significant attention from large investors, with on-chain data showing whale wallets now hold 25.65 billion ADA—the highest level since February 2023.
Whale Accumulation Signals Bullish Sentiment
According to Santiment Intelligence, wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have increased their combined holdings to 25.65 billion ADA, reflecting a steady accumulation trend. This contrasts with smaller investors, as wallets with fewer than 100 ADA have reduced their balances by approximately 0.7% over the past four months. The divergence suggests institutional-scale investors are positioning for the network upgrade, while retail participants remain cautious.
The Van Rossem hard fork introduces improvements to Cardano's Plutus smart contract platform, reduces execution costs, and enhances network efficiency. It also lays the groundwork for the Leios scaling upgrade, which aims to boost transaction throughput in future releases. This technical catalyst has driven whale activity, as seen in recent accumulation patterns.
For context, Cardano has seen similar whale behavior ahead of previous upgrades, as noted in our earlier coverage of Cardano Drops to $0.16 Despite Whales Accumulating 320M ADA Since July 7.
Derivatives Market Shows Caution
Despite the bullish on-chain signals, derivatives traders remain divided. Open interest in ADA futures has climbed to around $445 million as of July 16, indicating fresh capital entering the market ahead of the hard fork. However, funding rates have turned negative at approximately -0.0067%, and the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.58, suggesting short positions outnumber longs. This cautious positioning reflects uncertainty about whether the upgrade will trigger a sustained price rally.
Price Action and Technical Outlook
ADA is currently trading at $0.1608, down 1.0% in the last 24 hours, with a 4.7% decline over the past week and nearly 5% over the past month. The token remains below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.1783, the 100-day EMA at $0.2073, and the 200-day EMA near $0.2768, indicating the broader trend has yet to turn bullish.
Momentum indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the mid-40s, suggesting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows signs of improvement, hinting that bearish momentum is easing. Key resistance lies between $0.164 and $0.1665, where the 20-day EMA and Fibonacci retracement levels converge. A breakout above this zone could target $0.1709 and $0.176, with further resistance at $0.1865 to $0.195 and $0.208.
On the downside, immediate support is clustered around $0.1525 to $0.150. Losing this level could open the door to $0.1465 and potentially $0.138. The upcoming hard fork will likely determine whether ADA can break out of its current range or face further declines.
For investors tracking broader market trends, the divergence between whale accumulation and retail caution mirrors patterns seen in other assets, such as Injective Token Rises 5% Ahead of Washington Summit; $6 in Sight?.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
