Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off the new trading week on a positive note, rising more than 1% in the last 24 hours to surpass the $64,000 mark. The move comes after the cryptocurrency successfully defended the $62,300 support level, a zone that saw increased trading volume, suggesting a cluster of buy orders may be underpinning prices.
The recent price action follows softer-than-expected US inflation data, which has tempered expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The probability of a September rate increase has fallen to roughly 30%, down from about 76% a month earlier, after annual inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June. While this is a positive development for risk assets, inflation remains 1.4 percentage points above the Fed's 2% target, and three policymakers dissented from the decision to hold rates steady at the latest FOMC meeting. This leaves the door open for another hike, which continues to weigh on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Institutional interest appears mixed. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of approximately $350 million last week, but inflows of $137 million on Monday suggest some investors are still adding exposure. Monthly data from SoSoValue indicates that Bitcoin ETFs are on track to attract around $870 million in net inflows during August, which would be the strongest monthly result since April and a roughly 405% increase from the previous month. Sustained inflows could help absorb selling pressure and support prices if broader market conditions improve.
Whale activity has also been notable. According to Santiment, wallets holding between 1 and 100,000 BTC collectively added a net 10,000 BTC over the past month. The largest wallets in this group, those controlling between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC, reportedly accumulated around 30,000 BTC in just 17 days. This accumulation reduces the available supply and can establish stronger support zones, which may explain why Bitcoin has remained above $60,000 for the past 45 days despite macroeconomic headwinds.
However, whale buying does not guarantee an immediate rally. Bitcoin faces significant technical resistance at $66,000, a level that has rejected the price twice. On the downside, the $62,000 region has provided recent support, but it may only be a temporary floor rather than a well-established technical level. Momentum indicators are cautious, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving below its signal line, suggesting weakening buying strength. A drop below 40 could increase the likelihood of a retest of the psychologically important $60,000 level.
Conversely, a decisive daily close above $66,000 could strengthen the bullish case and open the door for a move toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average near $72,000. A confirmed breakout from the developing inverse head-and-shoulders pattern could extend the recovery toward $75,000. Until then, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound and sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations.
For context, other assets have also been influenced by similar dynamics. For instance, gold holds above $4,420 despite rising yields, while Ethereum whales accumulate 100K ETH but price remains stuck below $2K. In the broader crypto market, XRP hovers near $1 as whale buying persists, though technicals stay bearish.
As the week progresses, traders will be watching whether Bitcoin can break above $66,000, a level that could trigger a broader bullish reversal. Until then, the cryptocurrency is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with $62,000 and $60,000 as key downside levels to monitor.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
