US stock futures pointed to a tech-led open on Monday, with investors returning from a third straight week of S&P 500 gains and setting their sights on another record close. Nasdaq 100 futures rose roughly 170 points, or 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures added 0.1% and Dow futures slipped about 0.1%.
The supportive backdrop stems from Friday's retail sales report, which showed a 0.6% decline in July—the first drop in nine months—against expectations for a 0.1% increase. The control group, which feeds into GDP calculations, also fell 0.4%. While some weakness was attributed to Amazon shifting Prime Day into June and lower petrol-station receipts, the data raised questions about household momentum.
As a result, CME FedWatch now implies only about a 31% chance of a September rate increase, down from roughly 50% a month ago. The dollar has fallen to its lowest level since early June. Monday's Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 am ET will provide the first fresh US activity signal of the week.
Oil pressure builds
Brent crude rose about $1 to $89.44 a barrel, while WTI climbed towards $83. The move follows gains of more than 5% last week as diplomatic efforts involving Iran stalled and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed dramatically. Iran says it is close to finalising an arrangement with Oman governing vessel transit, but the US-Iran negotiating period has expired without a wider peace agreement.
For equities, the tension is straightforward: weaker economic data are reducing Fed-hike risk, but another oil surge could quickly put inflation back at the centre of the policy debate.
Micron leads memory rally
Micron was a standout premarket mover, climbing about 3.5% to above $1,000 after closing Friday at $971.66. SanDisk rose about 5%, while Seagate and Western Digital also advanced. The latest catalyst came after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated the administration would prefer Apple to source memory chips domestically rather than from China.
But the broader memory trade was already strengthening after SanDisk's bullish outlook. KeyBanc expects DRAM prices to increase another 15%-20% in the third quarter and NAND prices to surge 30%-40%, reinforcing expectations that tight AI-driven supply could keep the memory cycle stronger for longer. This follows recent Wall Street's raised targets on AI memory demand and New Street's $3T AI memory opportunity call.
Retail earnings as reality check
The weak retail-sales report makes this week's earnings calendar unusually important. Home Depot reports on Tuesday, followed by Target and Lowe's on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday. Investors will be watching whether July's spending decline was largely a timing distortion or evidence that higher living costs and slower hiring are finally forcing households to retrench.
Consumer-company earnings growth has already lagged the broader market this season, making guidance from the largest retailers potentially more important than the headline profit numbers. The S&P 500 enters the session after three consecutive weekly gains, and a close above its existing record of 7,798.99 would give the benchmark its 28th record finish of 2026.
AI remains central to the rally, but the breadth of second-quarter earnings has also helped. As the week unfolds, the interplay between oil prices, retail earnings, and Fed expectations will likely dictate market direction.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
