Bitcoin is holding above $78,000 on Wednesday, though the cryptocurrency remains in negative territory for the day as it struggles to extend its recovery beyond the $80,000 mark. The recent price strength has been underpinned by renewed institutional interest and a pickup in activity among large holders, commonly referred to as whales.
Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $314.37 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking the seventh consecutive day of positive flows. The total net asset value of these funds has climbed to $99.05 billion, representing roughly 6.31% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. This sustained inflow streak has provided a supportive backdrop for the asset's recent rebound.
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been a notable driver of this trend. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas noted in a Tuesday post that BlackRock has processed approximately $5 billion in Bitcoin-to-ETF swaps, facilitated by in-kind redemption mechanisms. The minimum transaction size for these swaps has been reduced to $1 million, making the structure accessible to a broader set of large investors. This in-kind approach allows eligible holders to defer capital gains recognition, which may encourage further participation.
Whale activity has also intensified. Santiment data indicates that the percentage of Bitcoin's total supply in profit has risen to 69.32%, up from 60.04% on August 13. The seven-day count of whale transactions exceeding $1 million has increased to 12,778, pointing to heightened activity among large investors. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 1 million BTC now control approximately 15.01% of the total supply, up from 14.75% at the start of August. Such accumulation patterns often signal growing confidence and can support the formation of a market bottom or the continuation of a broader recovery.
Technical levels to watch
Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,100, having retraced from its recent highs. The asset remains above both its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $67,760 and its 200-day EMA at $72,799, indicating a firmly supported medium-term trend. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $82,850 to $57,800 sits at $77,489 and is providing nearby support.
However, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain moves above $80,000. The previous swing high near $82,850 represents the next major resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above that level could open the path toward the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $89,663. Momentum indicators remain bullish but show signs of overheating: the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 64, close to overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is weakening, suggesting that upward momentum may be losing steam.
On the downside, the first major support is at $77,489, corresponding to the recently reclaimed 78.6% Fibonacci level. A deeper pullback could bring the broader demand zone between the 200-day EMA at $72,799 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $70,325 into focus. For the bullish scenario to remain intact, Bitcoin needs to hold above these supports and eventually break through the $80,000–$82,850 resistance zone. A sustained breakout could strengthen the recovery and expose the $89,663 level as the next major upside target.
In the broader crypto market, sentiment remains cautious but constructive. The recent rally, which saw Bitcoin gain about 23% in its latest advance, has pushed prices above the average purchase price for a large portion of the market. As institutional flows continue and whale accumulation persists, the path of least resistance may be upward, but traders should keep a close eye on the key resistance levels mentioned above. For related context, see our coverage on XRP's price outlook and Solana's recent rally.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
