Tesla (TSLA) shares continued their June slide on Wednesday, falling 1.8% to $374.69, as market participants turned their attention to the electric vehicle maker's second-quarter delivery report and intensifying speculation about a potential merger with SpaceX. The stock has now dropped nearly 13% in June and is down 4.7% since SpaceX began trading publicly on June 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The company is expected to release its Q2 vehicle delivery and energy storage deployment figures in early July. According to FactSet, analysts project Tesla will deliver approximately 401,120 electric vehicles during the quarter, representing a 4% year-over-year increase. However, investor attention appears to be shifting away from traditional automotive metrics toward broader strategic developments involving artificial intelligence initiatives and the possibility of combining Elon Musk's businesses.
Analysts Split on Delivery Outlook
Wall Street remains divided on Tesla's near-term delivery trajectory. JP Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta lowered his Q2 delivery estimate to 420,000 vehicles from 430,500 units, though the revised forecast still exceeds consensus. If achieved, that total would mark Tesla's strongest quarterly delivery performance since the company delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025.
Gupta pointed to "mixed recent signals" on EV demand in China and the United States as government incentives expire, but noted that Europe "remains the bright spot." Recent registration data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association supports that view, showing Tesla vehicle registrations in European markets more than doubled in May compared with the same period last year.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan expects Tesla to deliver around 405,000 vehicles during the quarter. However, he cautioned that the company's increased focus on robotaxis and humanoid robots could potentially weigh on demand for its privately owned vehicles. Investors continue to view Tesla's AI initiatives as central to its long-term growth story, with expectations that autonomous driving and robotics could create new earnings streams beyond vehicle manufacturing.
SpaceX Merger Buzz and Legal Headwinds
A potential combination of Tesla and SpaceX has emerged as another major topic among investors. Baird analyst Ben Kallo estimated Q2 deliveries at around 392,900 vehicles but said recent attention has centered on the SpaceX IPO and the prospect of a merger between Musk's companies. "We see this as likely to happen sooner rather than later," Kallo wrote, adding that a merger could occur within the next 18 months, giving SpaceX time to integrate its recent merger with xAI and establish itself as a public company.
Kallo sees "the strategic rationale for a merger as clear and compelling with both companies benefitting from greater scale." While questions may arise regarding regulatory review, he does not expect significant scrutiny given limited overlap of end markets. For more on SpaceX's post-IPO performance, see SpaceX Stock Slips 4% as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Broader Markets.
Meanwhile, Tesla is also facing legal scrutiny following a fatal crash in Texas involving one of its vehicles. The family of a woman who died after a Tesla Model 3 crashed into a home last week has filed a lawsuit against both Tesla and the driver, alleging gross negligence and wrongful death. According to the lawsuit, the vehicle was operating with an automated driving assistance system and "failed to detect the end of the street" before crashing into the residence. The suit alleges Tesla should be held liable for defects in its driver-assistance systems and for failing to adequately warn consumers of potential dangers.
Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a post on X that "FSD drives slowly through neighborhood streets and this was a high speed crash," referring to Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system. Another company executive stated that the driver manually pressed the accelerator pedal, overriding the self-driving system. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has launched a special investigation into the incident.
For broader market context, see Evening Digest: Oil Jumps on Hormuz Toll Plan; SpaceX Slides 4% and Tesla Drops 3% as Geopolitical Jitters, AI Milestone Wait Weigh on Stock.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
