SpaceX (SPCX) shares extended their decline into a second consecutive session on Monday, falling more than 4% to trade near $139, as the stock moved closer to its $135 initial public offering price. The drop came amid broad-based selling in U.S. equities, triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions.
President Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of what he termed a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sending the S&P 500 down 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite 1% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also slipped 56 points, or 0.1%, on the day.
Analyst Maintains Bullish Stance
Despite the pullback, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned reiterated a Buy rating on SpaceX with a price target of $239, implying more than 70% upside from current levels. Harned noted that SpaceX's leadership in reusable rocket technology remains intact, even after China successfully landed a Long March 10B rocket booster—a milestone that came about six months earlier than he had anticipated.
China's rapid expansion in space, including plans to deploy over 200,000 low-Earth orbit satellites and pursue a lunar research station, underscores the competitive landscape. However, Harned emphasized that the Long March 10 can only reuse its first-stage booster, whereas SpaceX's Starship is designed for full reusability. If successful, Starship could further reduce launch costs and increase launch frequency, strengthening SpaceX's competitive moat.
Wall Street's Ambitious Long-Term Scenarios
Several Wall Street firms have outlined aggressive long-term projections for SpaceX, driven by expectations for its Starlink satellite internet business, reusable launch services, and potential opportunities in AI infrastructure. Raymond James holds one of the Street's highest published price targets at $800 per share, while Citigroup has outlined a bull-case scenario valuing the company at roughly $12 trillion.
As noted in a recent analysis, Raymond James analyst sees SpaceX stock hitting $800, citing Starship and AI as key catalysts. Meanwhile, the stock's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 has drawn significant passive investment inflows, as funds tracking the benchmark adjusted their portfolios. This development was covered in detail in SpaceX Joins Nasdaq-100: $4.3B Inflows Test IPO Rally's Staying Power.
Post-IPO Volatility Continues
Monday's decline follows a volatile start to SpaceX's life as a publicly traded company. The stock surged more than 30% in its first several sessions before reversing course, bringing it closer to its $135 IPO price after debuting on the Nasdaq on June 12. The shares have already fallen below their $150 debut trading price, reflecting the market's sensitivity to high valuation expectations and limited trading history.
The combination of ambitious growth projections and a short public track record has left SpaceX shares particularly susceptible to shifts in investor sentiment. As the company navigates its early months on the public market, the interplay between geopolitical headlines, broader market trends, and company-specific developments will likely continue to drive price action.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
