SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) has seen its stock price cut in half since hitting an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16. The shares closed Wednesday at $112.55, roughly 17% below the $135 IPO price and more than 50% off the peak. The decline has erased over $1 trillion in market value, even as the company makes progress on Starship testing and sees strong demand for its launch and Starlink services.
Jim Cramer, the well-known CNBC commentator, remains bullish on SpaceX's long-term prospects but believes investors should hold off on making large purchases until after the company reports earnings and the first insider lock-up expires. He suggested that a small position could be taken before those events, but urged caution on committing significant capital.
Supply concerns loom over earnings
SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. Two days later, approximately 911.5 million restricted shares are set to become eligible for trading. IPO lock-ups prevent founders, employees, and early investors from selling their holdings, and their expiration often increases the available supply, which can pressure prices when demand is already fragile.
Cramer's concern is that even an encouraging earnings report may struggle to offset the prospect of more stock entering the market. SpaceX has used a staggered lock-up structure rather than a conventional single 180-day restriction, meaning additional portions will become tradable over the following months, keeping the supply overhang alive beyond August. This makes Cramer's argument more about timing than the company's direction. Strong results could spark a rebound, but disappointing financial details combined with insider selling could push the shares closer to $100.
For more on how lock-up expirations can affect stock prices, see our analysis of SpaceX's recent decline ahead of the lock-up.
Wall Street divided on valuation
Analyst opinions on SpaceX are sharply divided. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas maintains an Overweight rating and a $300 target. He values SpaceX's established launch and broadband operations at about $136 a share, and argues that a price near $100 would effectively assign no value to the company's artificial-intelligence operations. That could create an opportunity if SpaceX turns its computing infrastructure, xAI relationship, and proposed orbital data centers into durable revenue.
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has taken an even more aggressive position, assigning a Strong Buy rating and an $800 target. He assumes SpaceX becomes a foundational platform spanning launch, satellite communications, national security, and AI infrastructure.
On the other side, CFRA Research analyst Keith Snyder initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $115 target. He admires the company's vision but believes its financial disclosures do not yet justify the valuation. HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson also started coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 target, reflecting confidence in SpaceX's launch leadership but caution over its broader ambitions.
The broader market context is also relevant, as recent tech selloffs have weighed on growth stocks. For a look at how similar dynamics are playing out elsewhere, read about Robinhood's technical signals ahead of earnings.
Key questions for the August 4 report
The upcoming earnings report must provide evidence on several critical fronts: cash burn, Starlink economics, capital expenditure, and the timeline for emerging AI projects. The bearish case is that SpaceX still carries a valuation supported heavily by future businesses. Starlink must produce durable margins, Starship must achieve reliable reusability, and AI investments must generate enough revenue to justify enormous capital needs.
A 50% crash does not automatically make SpaceX cheap. The August 4 report will be a crucial test of whether the company can deliver the financial substance to match its ambitious vision. For now, Cramer's advice to wait may resonate with investors looking for a clearer entry point.
For a broader perspective on how earnings season is shaping up, see our coverage of the Nasdaq slide ahead of key earnings.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
